Today in our SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update we write, “Under normal economic conditions established for generations, when public and private debt levels were modest, when job creation was steady and outsourcing opportunities were limited (and there was at least a certain allegiance to the structure that had created the knowledge and opportunity for prosperity in the first place), and when government stayed within the limits of good governance, our markets should be in a steady up-trend after irrational conditions sent our stock market over the cliff from October 2008 through February 2009. Please notice that we are only talking about the final irrational leg of the markets grave downturn. The DOW (DJ-30) peaked a year before this period of extreme destruction, on October 9, 2007 at 14,034.39. It lost OVER HALF its value from October 2007 to March 3, 2009.
Instead, the stock market is still BELOW the October 2008 highs. This is awful. Our markets are still in the zone of irrationality that we have defined at the SMC as beginning the first week of October 2008. In a little over a month, our nation will have lingered in this irrational realm for over 2 years.
We are not telling you anything different than each of you are feeling when you enter Main Street America. We are simply validating it with very general stock market technical analysis.
Normal economic conditions do not currently exist here in America. That is what the FOMC decided on Tuesday when they announced that they were not going to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet but instead buy long term bonds, and what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was talking about in July when he announced that economically, America was in a period of Unusually Uncertain conditions.
Today, we want to give each of you subscribers something to think about –
If someone is holding significant assets in stock market mutual funds, now is probably the most important time to make sure they have adequate protection in place. We teach our subscribers that each day that they hold a liquid asset without selling it, by taking no action they have by default chosen to purchase it again.
Anyone holding stock mutual funds at this point in time may be saying to themselves something like this, “I believe that the current environment is NOT the new normal and that my investments will increase in value as awareness grows that these assets are currently undervalued.” If they believe this, then they have made a conscious, rational decision.
If however they do believe that the current environment IS the new normal, and that liquid assets – like stocks – may suffer harm due to further “seismic shifts” in the process of significant household de-leveraging while the public sector is over-leveraging, and they are holding plain vanilla stock mutual funds, then they may either be avoiding making a rational decision or in denial that they are holding assets that are susceptible to free-market revaluations.
They may also simply be waiting for them to regain a certain value before selling them. This may be a losing game, since many are waiting to do the same thing. No one knows for sure.
At the SMC, we DO NOT make any personal investing recommendations. Your money is your own business. Our business is to tell you what we are seeing in the marketplace and give you a snapshot at what we are doing with our own money at any given time.
Don’t go selling all your stock mutual funds that you own, “Because the SMC said so…”. We are NOT telling anyone to do so. We are simply saying to be conscious of where your money is and have a good reason for it being there. Having money in a certain place, hoping that it will return to some previous value without a valid reason for it to do so, is not a very good reason to have it there.
At the SMC, we look at the marketplace, and we make sure that we make a conscious decision and have a good reason to have our money where we do.
Meanwhile we will continue to find excellent opportunities and the right timing to engage these opportunities for our own money and share these ideas with you in as close to real time as possible.
We will continue to share how we take the broad market conditions and match them with ideas that lead to growth.
One of the key tools an individual stock investor has is the CHOICE to decide WHEN to be in the market and WHEN to be in cash.
Last night, John Chambers – CEO of Cisco Systems Inc. warned of unusual uncertainty in the marketplace. He is echoing Ben Bernanke’s statement from less than one month ago. John Chambers has broad knowledge of the world economy and marketplace.
We do not take his statement lightly. …”
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