– The Stock Market Companion –
15MinuteStocks
Market Update
May 7, 2010
——- Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——-
Published all Market Days
Monthly Subscription $29.95
 Today’s SMC Watchlist

– Executive Summary – 

The markets were down hard again today.  Here is the SMC Daily Chart of the DOW.

Right now, fear is in charge of the markets.  Fear of losing gains from the last year, fear of getting into the rally too late, fear of the markets falling hard again…

Many of the buyers at yesterday’s lows were short term speculators.  They got pushed around today, and some were shaken-out.  Volume was very high.

Time will show us what we need to know = which stocks institutional buyers are choosing to place their assets for growth.  That’s where we want to be, at the right time.  The market won’t keep us guessing this forever, but there are occasional long dry spells.

(For our concise market assessments, market details, stock ideas, and SMC return on investments – see below)   

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market	Price (Today’s Close)	Unit of Measure	Today’s Direction
SP-500	1,110.88	Index	Down = -17.27 points
DOW-30	10,380.43	Index	Down = -139.89 points
NASDAQ	2,265.64	Index	Down = -54.00 points
NASDAQ 100	1,849.44	Index	Down = -44.31 points

 

– Market Trends –

Trend	SP-500	DJ-30	NASDAQ	NASDAQ 100
Short Term	Down	Down	Down	Down
Intermediate	Down	Down	Down	Down
Long Term	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Today’s Highlights –

Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Employment Situation Summary, also known as the Non-farm jobs report.   For April, non payroll employment rose by 290,000.  That’s good news.  But there is some bad news too –  the unemployment rate increased to 9.9% – as the size of the labor force rose by 805,000.

Here’s what we like from the report –

• 290,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment
• Factory employment has increase by 101,000 since December.
• Construction employment is up a bit

Here’s what we don’t like from the report –

• Increase in unemployment rate due to the net increase in labor force needing employment.
• The number of long-term unemployed trended up some more, reaching 6.7 million.
• 45.9% of the unemployed have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

The numbers above do not include the 66,000 workers that the federal government hired to carry out the Census for 2010.

The inflection point, when the economy begins adding net new jobs will come.  We would be there now, if our workforce number hadn’t also grown.  Today’s non-farm payroll number is the best monthly gain in 4 years.

Many people will point fingers at the numbers and say that they aren’t accurate, that they don’t count everyone, and that things are horrible.  At the SMC we say, “Let’s work with what we have.”  Complaining and conspiracy theory focused minds makes publishers money.  It sells newsletters, magazines, and newspapers.  At the SMC we say that their customers “lose twice”.  Their minds are gradually trained to focus on the negative, and they are never ready to invest when the time is right.   We are going to stay opportunity focused.

 

– Stock Investing Specifics and Strategies –

Institutional investors in Dendreon Inc. (DNDN) continued to sell stock today.  Somaxon (SOMX) has also given back a large portion of its gap-up following FDA approval of its sleeping pill.

Institutional investors are currently giving stocks a cold shoulder.  We recommend continuing to keep the “powder dry”.

For those who like “bottom-fishing”, the chart of AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS) has our attention.  But we haven’t made a call here yet.

We read through YRC Worldwide (YRCW) earnings conference call transcripts.  It was not particularly encouraging.  But when a stock is selling at 0.45/share, when it used to be 100x that value, you can’t expect a glowing report.  It’s not a question of how bad things are, its a question of whether they can right-size their business and turn a real profit soon (without property sale/lease back agreements). They are doing a lot of work to keep the dike from breaking.  We did not come away with a clear buy signal.  Here too, we need to wait and see if any buying perks up.

Predictable, “odds stacked in our favor” kinds of investments will need to reveal themselves over time.  They will come.

 Please remember – at the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our SMC Intraday Update, SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the council of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : Please understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.         

 

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr.	Co.	Ticker	Action	Entry Date	Current Gain (Loss)

If there was a company with a ticker labeled “100% CASH”, we would have to report our holdings in the above table.

– Stock Market Companion – Previous Holdings –

Nr	Co.	Ticker	Entry Date	Exit Date	Total Gain or (Loss)
1	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	2/26/2010	4/29/2010	+35%
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	4/9/2010	4/29/2010	(-4%)
3	Ford Motor Co.	F	4/14/2010	4/27/2010	+5.4%
4	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	4/7/2010	4/9/2010	(-1.8%)
5	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	4/5/2010	4/8/2010	(-8.2%)
6	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/23/2010	4/7/2010	+5.7%
7	Ford Motor Co.	F	3/31/2010	4/7/2010	(-2%)
8	Somaxon Pharmaceuticals	SOMX	3/23/2010	4/6/2010	(-15.9%)
9	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	3/23/2010	3/31/2010	(-1.4%)
10	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	3/19/2010 (1/2 Position)	3/23/2010	(-1.5%)
11	Dendreon, Inc.	DNDN	2/11/2010	3/19/2010	+14.5%
12	General Electric Co.	GE	3/16/2010	3/19/2010	+1.4%
13	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/5/2010	3/19/2010	+1.3%
14	Ford Motor Co.	F	2/25/2010	3/18/2010	24%
15	RINO International	RINO	3/3/2010	3/17/2010	3.1%
16	Nutri-System Inc.	NTRI	10/16/2009	12/28/2009	+79.7%
17	Palm Inc.	PALM	11/11/2009	11/27/2009	-8.6%
18	Research In Motion	RIMM	12/8/2009	1/5/2010	+6.8%
19	Simple Tech, Inc.	STEC	12/15/2009	1/5/2010	+62.2%
20	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	12/10/2009	1/8/2010	+6%
21	Human Genome Sci.	HGSI	12/22/2009	1/8/2010	(-0.2%)
22	Ford Motor Co.	F	11/9/2009	1/12/2010	+48.6%
23	Western Refining Inc.	WNR	1/5/2010 (1/2 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.5%)
24	RINO International Corp.	RINO	1/8/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.1%)
25	Bank of America Inc.	BAC	1/4/2010	1/12/2010	+4.7%
26	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	1/12/2010 (1% only)	2/4/2010	(-17.1%)
27	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	2/3/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	2/4/2010	(-2.7%)

* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar	1.2755 USD = 1 Euro	USD / EUR	Dollar = Backed Off a little.
Gold	$1,210.4	Ounce	Gold = UP
Oil	$75.11	Barrel (West Texas Crude)	Oil = Down
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage	5.03	Percent	Down
30 Yr. Bond Yield	4.28	Percent	UP a little.
1 Yr. CD	1.38	Percent	Flat

(Data Source : Finviz.com Financial Visualizations)
 

Last night we made it to the local pizzeria on our bicycles and we all had a great time.  We arrived home just before dark and the kids were all smiles. It was a great adventure.

We wish you all a fine evening and great weekend. Remember to invest on your own, but not alone.

Signing off for today, your –

Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.<

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