– The Stock Market Companion –
15MinuteStocks
Market Update
April 27, 2010
——- Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——-
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 Today’s SMC Watchlist

– Executive Summary –

The markets took a broadside today, recovered briefly and then continued to sell-off hard into the close.  The broader market (SP-500) shed -2.3% in value, and the secondary markets – the DOW (DJ-30) and the NASDAQ – each shed approx. -2% in value.

The official catalysts for today’s aggressive sell-off were –

1. Greece (overnight): Germany weighed in on the EU, requiring Greece to cut their budget further.
2. Portugal (during market hours): Standard and Poor’s Inc. downgraded Portugal’s debt to AA-.
3. Greece (during market hours): Standard and Poor’s Inc. downgraded Greece’s debt to junk status.

Behind the scenes however, there have been tell-tale signs of what we will coin, “rally-fatigue”.  In this case, market-leading large capitalization companies have posted excellent earnings over the past weeks and have not been rewarded with enough significant buying interest to advance their share prices.  Institutional buyers have been satisfied to stand on the sidelines.

SMC holding Ford Motor Co. (Ticker: F) reported excellent earnings this morning before the bell.  If this had been early in the rally, the stock would have likely sailed forth on such good performance.  Instead, institutions used the news today as an opportunity to sell the stock.  We issued an Intra-Day Update this morning at 9:59 AM informing our subscribers that we were advancing our stop to $13.85/share.  Our stop was triggered shortly thereafter and the stock proceeded down to $13.15/share, before bouncing firmly and closing at $13.57. (See more below)

Yesterday we wrote, “Energy and transport stocks held steady, but the market could falter here.”  The market didn’t just falter, it fell off a cliff.  We have made an important change to our trend table, below.

  (For our concise market assessments, market details, stock ideas, and SMC return on investments – see below) 

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market	Price (Today’s Close)	Unit of Measure	Today’s Direction
SP-500	1,183.71	Index	Down = -28.34 points
DOW-30	10,991.99	Index	Down = -213.04 points
NASDAQ	2,471.47	Index	Down = -51.48 points
NASDAQ 100	2,006.25	Index	Down = -42.84 points

– Market Trends –

Trend	SP-500	DJ-30	NASDAQ	NASDAQ 100
Short Term	*Down*	*Down*	*Down*	*Down*
Intermediate	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral
Long Term	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

Today there was a flight to safety that took place.  Safety in this case was the Greenback and Gold.  Everything else took a hit.  After such an aggressive sell-off, we have no choice but to change the short term trend to DOWN.

– Today’s Highlights –

Wham!  The markets took some hard hits today to the chin.  We highlighted the official catalysts above – Greece, Portugal, and Greece (again).

The Greenback soared, as did gold as investors sought safety.

Remember American Insurance Group (Ticker: AIG), which we were talking about favorably last week (but did not take a position) due to its buff stock performance?  In the last week it found its legs after sputtering around a bit after Barron’s favorable opinion several weeks ago.  Its chart was not as tight as we would have liked.  AIG was down -16% today alone.

Because of the advance in the Greenback, commodity stocks and manufacturers tied closely to dollar denominated commodities (read: steel processors) took it hard.  For example, AK Steel (AKS) = Down -8.2% today alone, and down -30% over the last 3 weeks.

After the close, semi-conductor chip manufacturer Broadcom (BRCM) reported excellent earnings.  It’s up a bit in after hours.

– Stock Investing Specifics and Strategies –

In our SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update last week, we talked about “raising cash” and also about limiting our involvement to the few stocks that have such compelling events surrounding them that we were willing to hold them for a bit longer.  We also mentioned that we would like to see follow-through in the semi-conductor area; notably Intel Corp. (INTC), after their excellent earnings report.  We also “sat on our hands” as stocks like AIG and Apple Inc. were moving forth.  We talked about the market running on fumes and provided word pictures of running low on gas out on a country road.

Our posture paid off in terms of not being over-committed to the market.

We have now two remaining holdings – US Nat. Gas ETF (UNG) and YRC Worldwide (YRCW).

In the face of today’s market meltdown, UNG was actually showing positive numbers through much of the day.  YRCW came down some, but is now up a bit in after hours as Norfolk Southern (NSC) added another piece to the transportation picture -> showing higher shipping volumes in April.  (Source: Briefing.com)   NSC is primarily a Rail-Freight company.

We gave Ford Motor Co. all the rope we could.  This stock will need to show us its intentions as the days and weeks progress.

Energy stocks – like Schlumberger (SLB) – were snuffed out with the advancing Greenback.  This makes us stop and watch UNG carefully.  Others too are taking note that UNG didn’t sell off today.  It may take a hit tomorow, or it may remain quiet and spring north when the market catches its breath.

Please remember – at the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our SMC Intraday Update, SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the council of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : Please understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.        

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr.	Co.	Ticker	Action	Entry Date	Current Gain (Loss)
1	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	Holding	2/26/2010	+60%
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	Holding	4/9/2010	+3%
3	Ford Motor Co.	F	SOLD TODAY	4/14/2010	+5.4%  = Final

– Stock Market Companion – Previous Holdings –

Nr	Co.	Ticker	Entry Date	Exit Date	Total Gain or (Loss)
1	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	4/7/2010	4/9/2010	(-1.8%)
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	4/5/2010	4/8/2010	(-8.2%)
3	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/23/2010	4/7/2010	+5.7%
4	Ford Motor Co.	F	3/31/2010	4/7/2010	(-2%)
5	Somaxon Pharmaceuticals	SOMX	3/23/2010	4/6/2010	(-15.9%)
6	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	3/23/2010	3/31/2010	(-1.4%)
7	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	3/19/2010 (1/2 Position)	3/23/2010	(-1.5%)
8	Dendreon, Inc.	DNDN	2/11/2010	3/19/2010	+14.5%
9	General Electric Co.	GE	3/16/2010	3/19/2010	+1.4%
10	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/5/2010	3/19/2010	+1.3%
11	Ford Motor Co.	F	2/25/2010	3/18/2010	24%
12	RINO International	RINO	3/3/2010	3/17/2010	3.1%
13	Nutri-System Inc.	NTRI	10/16/2009	12/28/2009	+79.7%
14	Palm Inc.	PALM	11/11/2009	11/27/2009	-8.6%
15	Research In Motion	RIMM	12/8/2009	1/5/2010	+6.8%
16	Simple Tech, Inc.	STEC	12/15/2009	1/5/2010	+62.2%
17	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	12/10/2009	1/8/2010	+6%
18	Human Genome Sci.	HGSI	12/22/2009	1/8/2010	(-0.2%)
19	Ford Motor Co.	F	11/9/2009	1/12/2010	+48.6%
20	Western Refining Inc.	WNR	1/5/2010 (1/2 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.5%)
21	RINO International Corp.	RINO	1/8/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.1%)
22	Bank of America Inc.	BAC	1/4/2010	1/12/2010	+4.7%
23	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	1/12/2010 (1% only)	2/4/2010	(-17.1%)
24	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	2/3/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	2/4/2010	(-2.7%)

* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar	1.3168 USD = 1 Euro	USD / EUR	Dollar = Flat / Slightly Down
Gold	$1,167.50	Ounce	Gold = UP Big
Oil	$81.94	Barrel (West Texas Crude)	Oil = Down
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage	5.15	Percent	Flat
30 Yr. Bond Yield	4.56	Percent	Down (Investors bought treasuries and gold in their flight to safety)
1 Yr. CD	1.36	Percent	Flat

(Data Source : Finviz.com Financial Visualizations)

We wish you all a fine evening.

Remember to invest on your own, but not alone.

Signing off for today, your –

Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.<

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