– The Stock Market Companion –
15MinuteStocks
Market Update
April 26, 2010
——- Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——-
Published all Market Days
Monthly Subscription $29.95
 Today’s SMC Watchlist

– Executive Summary –

Today was a “shot across the bow” for the markets, right out of the pages of an exciting C.S. Forester – Horatio Hornblower – novel.  There has been an epic sea battle and the sun has set.  The sea is littered with flotsam and there are silhouettes of vessels with torn rigging and broken masts in the orange after-glow of the setting sun.  As you come along side to help swimming and wounded sailors board your stout sloop, you see a large man-o’-war listing heavily to one side, with flames licking at the limp sails and smoke and fire belching from the gun-holes.  It doesn’t look like it is going to make it through the night.  By the light of various fires burning out of control you can just make out the name of the vessel once written proudly on the stern…”Goldman Sachs”…

The markets finished flat to modestly down today, with strong selling in the financials – led by further revelations surrounding Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Ticker: GS) and news from the US Treasury that they intend to begin selling 7 billion shares of Citigroup (C). (Source: Bloomberg Businessweek) 

Energy and transport stocks held steady, but the market could falter here.

(For our concise market assessments, market details, stock ideas, and SMC return on investments – see below)  

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market	Price (Today’s Close)	Unit of Measure	Today’s Direction
SP-500	1,212.05	Index	Down = -5.23 points
DOW-30	11,205.03	Index	Flat = +0.75 points
NASDAQ	2,522.95	Index	Down = -7.20 points
NASDAQ 100	2,049.09	Index	Down = -6.24 points

– Market Trends –

Trend	SP-500	DJ-30	NASDAQ	NASDAQ 100
Short Term	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral
Intermediate	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral
Long Term	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

Energy may be moving to replace the financials in terms of underlying strength for the markets.  We will soon see if this is strong enough support to keep the market afloat.  Strong earnings continue to be reported.

– Today’s Highlights –

The center of attention today was further accusations of Goldman Sachs (Ticker: GS) betting against the Housing markets and the US Treasury’s announcement of plans to begin selling its 7.7 billion shares of Citigroup Inc. (C).

In our humble opinion, Goldman Sachs would do well by taking note of Toyota’s current public relations dilemma and do the opposite, quickly. 

 

– Stock Investing Specifics and Strategies –

Schlumberger’s (SLB) held its own today, as did our US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) holding. 

Former SMC holding Dendreon Inc. (DNDN) made a further move north today on strong volume.  We gave it plenty of time to make its move while we were holding it.  By this Saturday, May 1st, there will likely be an announcement concerning the US FDA authorization of its novel prostate treatment (Provenge) that is proven to extend lives.  For SMC subscriber friends still holding this stock, it would be prudent to move your stop market order to around 39 – just below Friday’s low of $39.26/share. We would not encourage anyone to hold this stock beyond Thursday, unless they have a clear understanding of the risk vs. reward opportunity here.

For us at the SMC, we have now moved into the “shadow” of the upcoming announcement for DNDN.  When we purchased the stock in the low $30’s, we were hoping for a brisk move north to the mid to high $40’s.  But we didn’t get it.  While we were holding the stock, there were at least 3 investment broker upgrades identifying $48 as a likely target for the stock.  None of them really ignited it.  We got a back-and-forth upside move that yielded us a net +11% (approx.).

We invest in stocks when the odds are stacked in our favor.  This is not the case now with DNDN.  Let’s consider briefly the various outcomes for the stock in this upcoming week –

Ideal outcome = FDA approves DNDN’s Provenge treatment.  Stock response = Gap Up.  At that point, we can see if the stock stabilizes or sells-off.

Possible outcome = FDA delays decision.  Stock response = Sell-off.

Possible outcome = FDA denies approval.  Stock response = Total destruction. (See MDVN stock move from $40 to $12.88 overnight on failing to gain FDA approval)

We can easily picture a possible final “end run” into the FDA approval deadline, where the stock vaults significantly higher from its current price and “short-sellers” (speculators who have borrowed shares to sell high and by back lower) are forced out at higher price levels.  For most SMC subscriber friends, putting money to work here now would require very fleet action and involves higher risk.  As mentioned above, we were hoping for this type of behavior in the stock throughout the month of March and into April.  It is simply coming too late for the purposes of the SMC. 

Final variable = No one knows for sure when the final FDA decision will be released.

For us, we are grateful for our modest returns of approx. +11% on this holding.  We will let the stock itself announce its intentions, and not be disappointed on a strong gap up on a favorable FDA announcement.  Instead, we will be very pleased to see a new alternative become available for those with severe prostate conditions.

On Friday we announced – We finally made a change in our watchlist that we think that you will all appreciate.  We now have 3 groupings –

At the top = Current Holdings

Second Group = Stocks We Are Tracking Closely for Entry (INTC, SOMX, ARNA…)

 

Please remember – at the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our SMC Intraday Update, SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the council of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : Please understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.      

 

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr.	Co.	Ticker	Action	Entry Date	Current Gain (Loss)
1	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	Holding	2/26/2010	+74%
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	Holding	4/9/2010	+4%
3	Ford Motor Co.	F	Holding	4/14/2010	+10%

– Stock Market Companion – Previous Holdings –

Nr	Co.	Ticker	Entry Date	Exit Date	Total Gain or (Loss)
1	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	4/7/2010	4/9/2010	(-1.8%)
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	4/5/2010	4/8/2010	(-8.2%)
3	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/23/2010	4/7/2010	+5.7%
4	Ford Motor Co.	F	3/31/2010	4/7/2010	(-2%)
5	Somaxon Pharmaceuticals	SOMX	3/23/2010	4/6/2010	(-15.9%)
6	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	3/23/2010	3/31/2010	(-1.4%)
7	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	3/19/2010 (1/2 Position)	3/23/2010	(-1.5%)
8	Dendreon, Inc.	DNDN	2/11/2010	3/19/2010	+14.5%
9	General Electric Co.	GE	3/16/2010	3/19/2010	+1.4%
10	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/5/2010	3/19/2010	+1.3%
11	Ford Motor Co.	F	2/25/2010	3/18/2010	24%
12	RINO International	RINO	3/3/2010	3/17/2010	3.1%
13	Nutri-System Inc.	NTRI	10/16/2009	12/28/2009	+79.7%
14	Palm Inc.	PALM	11/11/2009	11/27/2009	-8.6%
15	Research In Motion	RIMM	12/8/2009	1/5/2010	+6.8%
16	Simple Tech, Inc.	STEC	12/15/2009	1/5/2010	+62.2%
17	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	12/10/2009	1/8/2010	+6%
18	Human Genome Sci.	HGSI	12/22/2009	1/8/2010	(-0.2%)
19	Ford Motor Co.	F	11/9/2009	1/12/2010	+48.6%
20	Western Refining Inc.	WNR	1/5/2010 (1/2 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.5%)
21	RINO International Corp.	RINO	1/8/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	1/12/2010	(-5.1%)
22	Bank of America Inc.	BAC	1/4/2010	1/12/2010	+4.7%
23	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	1/12/2010 (1% only)	2/4/2010	(-17.1%)
24	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	2/3/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	2/4/2010	(-2.7%)

* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar	1.3407 USD = 1 Euro	USD / EUR	Dollar = Flat / Slightly Down
Gold	$1,153.80	Ounce	Gold = Flat
Oil	$84.05	Barrel (West Texas Crude)	Oil = Flat
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage	5.14	Percent	Flat
30 Yr. Bond Yield	4.67	Percent	Flat
1 Yr. CD	1.36	Percent	Flat

(Data Source : Finviz.com Financial Visualizations)

We are off now to plant some seeds and flowers this late afternoon with the children.  Monday nights we play our string instruments and sing songs as a family at a retirement facility close-by.  We play gospel songs and older songs that they know.  Everyone really “lights up” when they see the kids and hear the music.  We’ve recently added “Home on the Range” and “The Happy Wanderer” to our growing list.  There is a real peace that comes upon everyone when we sing “Sweet Hour of Prayer”. 

We wish you all a fine evening.

Remember to invest on your own, but not alone.

Signing off for today, your –

Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.<

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