– The Stock Market Companion –
30MinuteStocks
Market Update
April 15, 2010
——- Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——-
Published all Market Days
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 Today’s SMC Watchlist

– Executive Summary –

The markets have been notably re-energized with excellent earnings reports over the last 2 days.  Alcoa’s earnings were a disappointment, but Intel’s earnings, JP Morgan’s earnings, and UPS’s pre-announcement on earnings paint a brighter picture of corporate performance than many were expecting.

In spite of the recent euphoria over earnings, the market’s were pointing down pre-market and during the trading day flirted with negative results, only to close positive for the day; the broader market (SP-500) only barely so.

Financing of Greece’s short term debt obligations, concerns that China may need to tighten monetary policy more firmly to quench their hot economy, and US initial jobless claims numbers for last week that are stubbornly high were the spoilers of the “earnings results party” and kept a lid on the market.

 (For our concise market assessments, market details, stock ideas, and SMC return on investments – see below)

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market	Price (Today’s Close)	Unit of Measure	Today’s Direction
SP-500	1,211.67	Index	UP = +1.02 points
DOW-30	11,144.57	Index	UP = +21.46 points
NASDAQ	2,515.69	Index	UP = +10.83 points
NASDAQ 100	2038.64	Index	UP = +9.82 points

– Market Trends –

Trend	SP-500	DJ-30	NASDAQ	NASDAQ 100
Short Term	UP	UP	UP	UP
Intermediate	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral
Long Term	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

  

– Today’s Highlights –

In a healthy market, there is an ebb and flow that needs to take place.  Enthusiastic new buyers emerge to relieve both the buyers who were early adopters and who would now like to take their profits and sellers who have been waiting a long time to break-even or cut their losses with prices such as these.  This ebb and flow is taking place right now and the market feels a lot healthier.  The lethargic upward crawling market that we had over the last weeks, that was acting more like Curly of the 3 Stooges sleep-walking along the sidewalk and appearing destined at any moment to step off the curb onto a busy street, has been replaced.

Today the transport stocks were invigorated as a result of United Parcel Service’s (Ticker: UPS) earnings pre-announcement last night.  Apparently things are going so well over at UPS that they wanted to give everyone a heads-up before their official earnings release on April 27th.  The market received this information with sincere appreciation.  Next time you have a chance to smile and wave at a “Brown-Truck” driver, don’t miss it.  They are working hard and efficiently.  We have very good UPS service here in Vancouver, WA.  Fedex too is ever present here.  At around 7 PM each day we see the Fedex jet gaining altitude after departing Portland International Airport on its flight path along the Columbia.  The “World on Time” – and they mean it.

Nagging concerns over Greece pumped up the Greenback today and the market returned some of its unused party supplies as uncertainty over what China is going to do next with their monetary policy and stubbornly high US initial jobless claims gave pessimists a reason to validate their claims.  Ebb and flow.

– Stock Investing Specifics and Strategies –

Volume has returned to a certain degree.  Many who were pessimistic about the stock market are realising suddenly that it can still be an important tool for wealth creation, but they need to know how to engage the market successfully.  Running after hot stocks – which have already left the barn, coming late to the party, and “buying and holding” without an understanding of market timing are recipe’s for disaster.  At the Stock Market Companion we are here to help.

We have several good stories that we are researching right now here at the SMC and will share more soon.

Over the last 7 months, we have participated strongly in a broad range of stocks from vastly different sectors – specialty retail / weight-loss (NTRI), automotive manufacturing (F), technology/solid state memory devices (STEC), banking (BAC), pharmaceuticals (DNDN), computer/consumer electronics (AAPL) …  and we will continue to identify others.

Right now we have semi-conductors and – in particular – Intel Corporation (INTC) on our mind and wish that we had gone ahead and purchased INTC stock yesterday mid-morning on its pullback from its gap-up open.  We will look for a prudent entry to come.  There were two things working against us yesterday on INTC.  The stock dropped very hard off the open with a big player exiting – which led us to back-off, and shortly thereafter we were busy sending out our Intraday Update and getting on board Ford Motor Co.  Throughout the day yesterday, INTC was acting a bit strange.  But it has corrected this stance and move forward firmly today.

Ford entered the fast-lane today and our purchase decision has been quickly validated.  Our hope is that large institutions will drive the market to vigorously re-price this company to the upside in light of continuing difficulties at Toyota and possibilities of unusual or disruptive market share gains for Ford.  So far, so good.  Ford Motor Co. reports earnings on April 22nd before the open and depending on the distance that we have gained from our entry, the condition of the overall market, and subtle and not so subtle (Toyota stopping sales of a vehicle) clues we may make an exception to our strong rule of thumb policy of being out of a stock at earnings.  We’ll keep you posted.

You knew that we would not be able to finish today’s SMC 30MinuteStocks Market Update without a word about our unusual penny-stock investment – YRC Worldwide (YRCW).  We have a special thanks to hand UPS (above) for revealing the strength of the US transportation sector.  Today’s gains at YRCW are a direct result of the clouds being pushed aside by UPS concerning US transport conditions. 

YRCW Chairman Zollars has been saying that transport volumes have improved significantly and that the company has turned the corner, but when you are in the penalty box ($60 stock repriced to 0.34 cents and on the verge of bankruptcy) your voice and influence is severely discounted.  Losing your President and Chief Operating Officer to his former employer, and then saying to the press something to the effect of, “… Mr. Wicks’ leaving validates our turnaround and it doesn’t really matter…”, doesn’t exactly add strength to your position.  Unbelievable.  Nonetheless, YRCW recovered all of Tuesday’s sell-off today and may be ready to resume its advance, as long as another shoe doesn’t drop to scare the wits out of investors.  Today, YRCW led the transport group of stocks in performance!

Google Inc. (GOOG) reported earnings after the close that were good, but do not validate their current approx. $595/share stock price.  Right now in after hours trading they are priced approx. $30/share lower.  Google’s results will most likely have a negative impact on the market tomorrow.  We will simply have to see how much, which sectors, and if the market shakes it off.

 

Please remember – at the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our SMC Intraday Update, SMC 30MinuteStocks Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the council of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : Please understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.      

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr.	Co.	Ticker	Action	Entry Date	Current Gain (Loss)
1	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	Holding	2/26/2010	+53%
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	Holding	4/9/2010	-2%
3	Ford Motor Co.	F	Holding	4/14/2010	+5%

– Stock Market Companion – Previous Holdings –

Nr	Co.	Ticker	Entry Date	Exit Date	Total Gain or (Loss)
1	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	4/7/2010	4/9/2010	-1.8%
2	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	4/5/2010	4/8/2010	(-8.2%)
3	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/23/2010	4/7/2010	+5.7%
4	Ford Motor Co.	F	3/31/2010	4/7/2010	(-2%)
5	Somaxon Pharmaceuticals	SOMX	3/23/2010	4/6/2010	(-15.9%)
6	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	3/23/2010	3/31/2010	(-1.4%)
7	ProShares Ultra Short SP-500	SDS	3/19/2010 (1/2 Position)	3/23/2010	(-1.5%)
8	Dendreon, Inc.	DNDN	2/11/2010	3/19/2010	+14.5%
9	General Electric Co.	GE	3/16/2010	3/19/2010	+1.4%
10	Apple Inc.	AAPL	3/5/2010	3/19/2010	+1.3%
11	Ford Motor Co.	F	2/25/2010	3/18/2010	24%
12	RINO International	RINO	3/3/2010	3/17/2010	3.1%
13	Nutri-System Inc.	NTRI	10/16/2009	12/28/2009	+79.7%
14	Palm Inc.	PALM	11/11/2009	11/27/2009	-8.6%
15	Research In Motion	RIMM	12/8/2009	1/5/2010	+6.8%
16	Simple Tech, Inc.	STEC	12/15/2009	1/5/2010	+62.2%
17	US Natural Gas ETF	UNG	12/10/2009	1/8/2010	+6%
18	Human Genome Sci.	HGSI	12/22/2009	1/8/2010	-0.2%
19	Ford Motor Co.	F	11/9/2009	1/12/2010	+48.6%
20	Western Refining Inc.	WNR	1/5/2010 (1/2 Share Count)	1/12/2010	-5.5%
21	RINO International Corp.	RINO	1/8/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	1/12/2010	-5.1%
22	Bank of America Inc.	BAC	1/4/2010	1/12/2010	+4.7%
23	YRC Worldwide	YRCW	1/12/2010 (1% only)	2/4/2010	-17.1%
24	Dendreon Inc.	DNDN	2/3/2010 (1/4 Share Count)	2/4/2010	-2.7%

* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar	1.357 USD = 1 Euro	USD / EUR	Dollar = UP
Gold	1,160.0	Ounce	Gold = Flat
Oil	$85.30	Barrel (West Texas Crude)	Oil = UP
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage	5.17	Percent	Flat
30 Yr. Bond Yield	4.72	Percent	Flat
1 Yr. CD	1.36	Percent	Flat

We wish you all a fine evening.   Remember to invest on your own, but not alone.

Signing off for today, your –

Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.<

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