– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

April 6, 2013

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

• Friday‘s market Results = S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (-.43%), DOW (-.28%), NASDAQ (-.65%)
  

   

• Markets – Friday’s broader U.S. market action CONFIRMED Wednesday’s DOWNSIDE reversal for the markets.  The catalyst for the drop was the terrible “Jobs Report” for March.   The reported 88,000 jobs was less than HALF the expected number of jobs created for the month.  Also – IMPORTANTLY – factory data apparently also showed its weakest growth in three months.  Please click here for a good Reuters article on the subject. 

  
  We expect the markets to now gradually WEAKEN for a period of time and the broader market to test the February high’s of 153 for the SPY.  Let’s see if we are right.  For those interested in experimenting with such ideas, there are reputable funds that allow short term investments in index funds that go UP when the market declines.  Here is one possible example = a ProShares fund that increases by 2x, the same amount that the S&P 500 declines.
  

  
  Since the UPSIDE Reversal day for the broader U.S. market (S&P 500) on November 16th, the markets have been demonstrating relative STRENGTH.  Friday’s market action marks the follow-through to the DOWNSIDE of a classic 1, 2, 3 pattern, marking a POSSIBLE intermediate top for the markets.
  (Please see your SMC Daily Chart of the “SPY” (SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF, below)
  

• Last week we wrote this about the markets – “The market has been in a rally for 4.5 months .  We haven’t been much at all involved in this particular rally, although we identified several excellent investments = Hewlett Packard (HPQ); Radio Shack (RSH), Acadia (ACAD) …  It’s easy to begin feeling left behind and begin “running after the market”.  We don’t do that at SMC.  We wait for prudent entries, on investment stories that we understand.
  

  The markets are stretching HIGHER on terrible economic news out of Europe (“Eurozone unemployment at all-time highs of 12%”  Courtesy of Briefing.com).  Expectations are for interest rate easing over there and therefore continued favorable industrial investment.  This market CAN run farther, but we are cautious to not run after the market.  We are looking for individual stock investing opportunities to teach our proven S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method.”

• Please click here to view today’s Stock Market Companion Daily Chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – Our Roadmap for Successfully Investing in the U.S. Domestic Stock Markets.
  

   

• The price of a barrel of West Texas Crude has already dropped approx. -5%, as the idea of a slowing in factory orders emerges.  Please see our SMC “Benchmarks At-A-Glance” Below.
  

  
  

• A close friend and long term (3.5 years) paying subscriber of Stock Market Companion mentioned today on the phone that he had earned approx. $26,000 by engaging SMC ideas like Facebook (FB) and Arcadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), as well as other investments that he made in the markets – on his own, since October 2012.  We will inquire for a short written testimonial.  Most importantly, I asked if he had sold his positions, and he said, “Yes”.  This means he captured his gains.  He did what many successful investors have and continue to do – He profited in the stock market and took those profits and invested in real estate.
  

   

• Apple Inc. (AAPL) made its move and is now no longer a suitable investment for short term investors.  Here’s how we presented this idea … “How about +3.9% in a week, with a leading U.S. company stock?  Our Apple, Inc. investment idea from last week is looking pretty good.  Please see the chart below to see what is going on.  Friday’s closing price = $461.91 = +3.9% over $443.66.   Here’s how we presented this idea – “Interested in a possible +5% – +10% move in a high quality stock that has been sold-down hard?  How about shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) at $443.66 and an initial target of  $465/share (+4.7%) or next target of $480 (+8%), with a stop/loss protection at $418.8 (-6%).  This doesn’t at all meet the stringent guidelines of a 2x to 3x reward / risk ratio – but – with the down -40% in 6 months, and 4 “down-legs” printed, this is an interesting opportunity for investors.”  Please click on the above chart or on this link for a picture of this possible opportunity unfolding with Apple, Inc. shares.
  
• Acadia is now holding at $7.70/share for a strong +50% (approx.)  on this investment since early January.  There is no longer a safe entry here.
  

  
  WOW!  How about Acadia’s blistering reach HIGHER to $8.81 this week?  Those on board since our highlight in January on the move above $5.18/share have experienced a +70% increase.Here’s a short (5 minute) teaching video on how this has worked out.  (Please click on the link and the video will open in a separate tab on your browser).Here’s what we have written on this one, since it came on our radar in late November (most recent to earliest posting sequence)… “A move above $6.65, with a favorable background market will have us involved with Acadia Pharmaceuticals, for those not invested in the shares on the move above $5.18 in January.Warning = Do not run after this one.  There may be an entry here or maybe not.  Now is the time to see if investors sell strongly.  There will be normally be a clear signal in the days or weeks ahead if this is still a viable investment.

  We have previously posted this on ACAD – “(ACAD $4.95) continues to establish itself in a lateral fashion, and appears at the moment to be perhaps ready to move HIGHER.  A move above $5.18 will get us on board.  We have highlighted Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95) as a stock to watch, after the shares JUMPED +43% in value almost 1.5 months ago.  We wrote …”The company has received brokerage upgrades to approx. $9/share, after demonstrating very positive Phase III results for their drug that fights Parkinson’s Psychosis (PSD).Please click here for the company’s press release highlighting this very significant development.  The shares need to consolidate in a predictable pattern before we will consider an investment.”  Selling has continued in the shares, pushing their value back below recent consolidation support at $4.81.  We have time to watch this one carefully.””
  

• Here’s our early alert on Hewlett Packard which has led to a +47% return in 3 months time = “Hewlett Packard (HPQ) has now advanced +11% from our last update, when we shared this chart – “Click here for our SMC Daily Chart of Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ $13.68), which shows how we are viewing possibilities.””
  

• Our investment in Arena Pharmaceuticals has so far been a disappointment.  We have taken time to create this 5 minute teaching video on this one to give you an idea of how we are seeing things now.  (Please click on the link and the video will open in a separate tab on your browser).
  

  There are pockets of strength and “oversold” conditions that we at Stock Market Companion will engage in – like our first Facebook investment at approx. $19.20 / share in September 2012 – which recently increased to over $32/share = +66% in 5 month’s time!

• Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you.  Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com