– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
March 23, 2013
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
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-Executive Summary-
- Friday’s Market Results = S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (+.72%), DOW (+.63%), NASDAQ (+.70%)
- Markets – Since the UPSIDE Reversal day for the broader U.S. market (S&P 500) on November 16th, the markets have been demonstrating relative STRENGTH. Last week, the S&P 500 – as measured by the “SPY” (SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF) broke to new ALL-TIME High’s 10 $156.80. The previous all-time high was $156.70, established in 2007. Yes, there was a time before that – in 2000 – when the broader U.S. market was at similar high’s = $154.94 in the week of March 30, 2000.
- Market Overview = The market has been in a rally for over 4 months (Please see your SMC Daily Chart of the “SPY” (SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF, below)). We haven’t been much at all involved in this particular rally, although we identified several excellent investments = Hewlett Packard (HPQ); Radio Shack (RSH), Acadia (ACAD) … It’s easy to begin feeling left behind and begin “running after the market”. We don’t do that at SMC. We wait for prudent entries, on investment stories that we understand.
- Please click here to view today’s Stock Market Companion Daily Chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – Our Roadmap for Successfully Investing in the U.S. Domestic Stock Markets.
- How about +3.9% in a week, with a leading U.S. company stock? Our Apple, Inc. investment idea from last week is looking pretty good. Please see the chart below to see what is going on. Friday’s closing price = $461.91 = +3.9% over $443.66. Here’s how we presented this idea – “Interested in a possible +5% – +10% move in a high quality stock that has been sold-down hard? How about shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) at $443.66 and an initial target of $465/share (+4.7%) or next target of $480 (+8%), with a stop/loss protection at $418.8 (-6%). This doesn’t at all meet the stringent guidelines of a 2x to 3x reward / risk ratio – but – with the down -40% in 6 months, and 4 “down-legs” printed, this is an interesting opportunity for investors.”
- WOW! How about Acadia’s blistering reach HIGHER to $8.81 this week? Those on board since our highlight in January on the move above $5.18/share have experienced a +70% increase.Here’s a short (5 minute) teaching video on how this has worked out. (Please click on the link and the video will open in a separate tab on your browser).Here’s what we have written on this one, since it came on our radar in late November (most recent to earliest posting sequence)… “A move above $6.65, with a favorable background market will have us involved with Acadia Pharmaceuticals, for those not invested in the shares on the move above $5.18 in January.
Warning = Do not run after this one. There may be an entry here or maybe not. Now is the time to see if investors sell strongly. There will be normally be a clear signal in the days or weeks ahead if this is still a viable investment.
We have previously posted this on ACAD – “(ACAD $4.95) continues to establish itself in a lateral fashion, and appears at the moment to be perhaps ready to move HIGHER. A move above $5.18 will get us on board. We have highlighted Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95) as a stock to watch, after the shares JUMPED +43% in value almost 1.5 months ago. We wrote …”The company has received brokerage upgrades to approx. $9/share, after demonstrating very positive Phase III results for their drug that fights Parkinson’s Psychosis (PSD).Please click here for the company’s press release highlighting this very significant development. The shares need to consolidate in a predictable pattern before we will consider an investment.” Selling has continued in the shares, pushing their value back below recent consolidation support at $4.81. We have time to watch this one carefully.””
- Here’s our early alert on Hewlett Packard which has led to a +47% return in 3 months time = “Hewlett Packard (HPQ) has now advanced +11% from our last update, when we shared this chart – “Click here for our SMC Daily Chart of Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ $13.68), which shows how we are viewing possibilities.””
- Our investment in Arena Pharmaceuticals has so far been a disappointment, but this week’s share price development, which includes “flushing out of stops” and then bolting higher is quite possibly a favorable development. We have taken time to create this 5 minute teaching video on this one to give you an idea of how we are seeing things now. (Please click on the link and the video will open in a separate tab on your browser).
- There are pockets of strength and “oversold” conditions that we at Stock Market Companion will engage in – like our first Facebook investment at approx. $19.20 / share in September 2012 – which recently increased to over $32/share = +66% in 5 month’s time!
- Please click here to send us your feedback. Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com
– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 | Arena Pharma | ARNA | Holding | 1/15/2013 | -21% |
– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –
We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time. We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that. What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:
- Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
- Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
- Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
- Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
- Covered Call ideas
- Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
- Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)
| Nr. | Introduction Date |
% Gain or (Loss) (Introduction) |
Co. | Ticker | Possible Opportunity NOW | STOP Level or Other Considerations | Possible TARGET | REWARD / Risk Ratio |
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes + |
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,556 | Index | UP |
| DOW-30 | 14,512 | Index | UP |
| NASDAQ | 3,245 | Index | UP |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | UP | UP | UP |
| Intermediate | UP | UP | UP |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).
– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –
– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –
S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –
S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)
I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)
M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time? Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).
P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)
L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)
E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)
Please see today’s Executive Summary.
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
|
USD / EUR |
Dollar =UP against the euro.
|
Gold |
$1,608 |
Ounce |
Gold = UP |
Oil |
$93.80 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = FLAT
|
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
3.72% |
Percent |
Down below 4%.
|
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
1.94% |
Percent |
Just below the important 2% line.
|
1 Yr. CD |
1.00 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com
Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional. Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers). By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.
- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
- Please click here to send us your feedback. Let us know how we
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