– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

March 17, 2013

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published 1x/Week (Weekends)
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-Executive Summary-

• Friday’s Market Results = S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (-.16%), DOW (-.17%), NASDAQ (-.30%)
  

   

• Markets – Since the UPSIDE Reversal day for the broader U.S. market (S&P 500) on November 16th, the markets have been demonstrating relative STRENGTH.  This week, the S&P 500 – as measured by the “SPY” (SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF) broke to new ALL-TIME High’s 10 $156.80.  The previous all-time high was $156.70, established in 2007.  Yes, there was a time before that – in 2000 – when the broader U.S. market was at similar high’s = $154.94 in the week of March 30, 2000.   These leads us to consider some important questions-
  

  * Is there a correlation between these high’s and the time of year… etc…?  Sure.

  * Is it an ominous sign that the broader market is reaching for new high’s? No.  Consider that interest rates are at near all-time lows, U.S. corporation profitability is very strong, and that many shares of strong U.S. corporations are still selling at discounts to the overall market.
  * Is now the time to blindly invest in the U.S. stock market? No.  There is never a time to do that.  Carefully selecting under-performing companies on the verge of improvement, or strong companies on the verge of earnings expansion, or selling shares in company’s that have already experienced very strong earnings acceleration are several – of many – winning strategies.

• Market Overview = We stand by what we wrote last week – “To us, the markets appear somewhat “over-bought”, BUT there is a lot of money that is prepared to run after growth.  We don’t do that at SMC.  We wait for prudent entries, on investment stories that we understand.”
  

  In the local paper this week, we read that the U.S. military has increased missile defense systems in Alaska – in response to North Korea’s recent nuclear tests AND walking away from armistice agreements.  Geopolitical events like this may introduce more UNCERTAINTY in the marketplace and cause investors to pause putting money at risk in liquid markets like the stock market.  We are cautious.
  

   

• Please click here to view today’s Stock Market Companion Daily Chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – Our Roadmap for Successfully Investing in the U.S. Domestic Stock Markets.
  

   

• Interested in a possible +5% – +10% move in a high quality stock that has been sold-down hard?  How about shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) at $443.66 and an initial target of  $465/share (+4.7%) or next target of $480 (+8%), with a stop/loss protection at $418.8 (-6%).  This doesn’t at all meet the stringent guidelines of a 2x to 3x reward / risk ratio – but – with the down -40% in 6 months, and 4 “down-legs” printed, this is an interesting opportunity for investors.
  

   

  Please click on the above chart or on this link for a picture of this possible opportunity unfolding with Apple, Inc. shares.

• A move above $6.65, with a favorable background market will have us involved with Acadia Pharmaceuticals, for those not invested in the shares on the move above $5.18 in January.We have previously posted this on ACAD – “(ACAD $4.95) continues to establish itself in a lateral fashion, and appears at the moment to be perhaps ready to move HIGHER.  A move above $5.18 will get us on board.  We have highlighted Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95) as a stock to watch, after the shares JUMPED +43% in value almost 1.5 months ago.  We wrote …”The company has received brokerage upgrades to approx. $9/share, after demonstrating very positive Phase III results for their drug that fights Parkinson’s Psychosis (PSD).Please click here for the company’s press release highlighting this very significant development.  The shares need to consolidate in a predictable pattern before we will consider an investment.”  Selling has continued in the shares, pushing their value back below recent consolidation support at $4.81.  We have time to watch this one carefully.”
  

• Here’s our early alert on Hewlett Packard which has led to a +47% return in 3 months time = “Hewlett Packard (HPQ) has now advanced +11% from our last update, when we shared this chart – “Click here for our SMC Daily Chart of Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ $13.68), which shows how we are viewing possibilities.””
  

• Here’s our view of Arena, which has been a disappointment = “This SMC weekly chart of Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $9.00) provides an arm’s length perspective to see the nice consolidation occurring in the shares.  Please click here to view the chart.”
  

   

• There are pockets of strength and “oversold” conditions that we at Stock Market Companion will engage in – like our first Facebook investment at approx. $19.20 / share in September 2012 – which recently increased to over $32/share = +66% in 5 month’s time!
• Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you.  Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com