– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

January 6, 2013

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

 

  • Markets – Strong.   S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (+0.49%), DOW (+.33%), NASDAQ (+.08%)  With sufficient clarity on the “fiscal cliff” situation in Washington, the markets have now almost entirely recovered from the total -8% drop in value in the broader U.S. equity markets from September 14th through November 15th.   The broader U.S. market (S&P 500)  plunged below its 200 day on November 14th, signalling strong weakness, but has since moved back above its 200 day moving average and above its 50 day moving average.  Please see the SMC S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Daily Chart, below for details.

     

  • Market Overview = The market is poised to possibly move HIGHER, above it’s broad lateral consolidation that began September 14, 2012.  From a multi-year standpoint, the broader market is approaching late 2007 levels, just below all-time highs.  These high’s are close in relationship to the 2000 highs, last achieved by the broader market, 13 years ago.

     

  • We continue to like the looks of Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ $15.14) and Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $9.00).  We also like Radio Shack (RSH $2.40), with a stop under recent lows of $1.96.  Facebook (FB $28.76) looks also quite strong here, as does Boeing (BA $77.69), and Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95).

     

  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95) continues to establish itself in a lateral fashion, and appears at the moment to be perhaps ready to move HIGHER.  A move above $5.18 will get us on board.  We have highlighted Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD $4.95) as a stock to watch, after the shares JUMPED +43% in value almost 1.5 months ago.  We wrote …”The company has received brokerage upgrades to approx. $9/share, after demonstrating very positive Phase III results for their drug that fights Parkinson’s Psychosis (PSD).  Please click here for the company’s press release highlighting this very significant development.  The shares need to consolidate in a predictable pattern before we will consider an investment.”  Selling has continued in the shares, pushing their value back below recent consolidation support at $4.81.  We have time to watch this one carefully.
  • HPQ has now advanced +11% from our last update, when we shared this chart – “Click here for our SMC Daily Chart of Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ $13.68), which shows how we are viewing possibilities.”
  • This SMC weekly chart of Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $9.00) provides an arm’s length perspective to see the nice consolidation occurring in the shares.  Please click here to view the chart.


  • We like how Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $9.40)  is building a higher, flat base between $7 and $9.50/share, holding reasonably firmly through the markets rough spell these last few months.  This one may have some real upside potential.  Please see our SMC weekly chart of this company, above.


  • Over the last months we have talked about the shares of Facebook (FB $26.15) being a good opportunity.  The shares have advanced strongly = from $22.88 to $26.15 in this short time.  We wrote … “Shares of Facebook (FB $22.88) did squeeze higher as we predicted last week … “Facebook announced a “Jobs” page and jumped strongly higher, even though approx. 800 million ADDITIONAL shares were made available for sale today.  Risk tolerant investors, experienced in options may find a “short squeeze” unfolding in Facebook shares.”


  • Please click here to view today’s Stock Market Companion Daily Chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – Our Roadmap for Successfully Investing in the U.S. Domestic Stock Markets.
  • There are pockets of strength and “oversold” conditions that we at Stock Market Companion will engage in – like our recent and first Facebook investment and our investment in Arena Pharmaceuticals and its NEW appetite suppressing, prescription diet drug – and others to come (with time).

     

  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you.  Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

 

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)
Nr. Introduction
Date		 % Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)		 Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio		 S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +

 

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,466 Index UP
DOW-30 13,435 Index UP
NASDAQ 3,103 Index UP

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ
Short Term UP UP UP
Intermediate FLAT FLAT FLAT
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).


– Today’s Highlights –

 

– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –
– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

 

Please see today’s Executive Summary.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar


1.3042 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar =UP against the euro.

Gold

$1,659

Ounce

Gold = FLAT

Oil

$92.94

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = UP

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

3.5%

Percent

Down below 4%.

10 Yr. Bond Yield

1.89%

Percent

UP; Firmly below the important 2% line.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

 

 

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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