– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
July 25, 2012
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
Published 3 Days / Week
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-Executive Summary-
- Divergent. The DOW was able to post some gains, while the NASDAQ lost with Apple’s under-performing quarterly results. S&P 500 (-.42%); DOW (+.47%); NASDAQ (-.31%)
- Market Overview = Although “jolted”, the market remains fixed in a confirmed lateral consolidation as measured by our broader S&P 500 ETF (SPY). That said, there is little to like about this week’s market action. The market is acting very “narrow”. This means that there are some company shares that are performing reasonably well, whereas the overall market is behaving like it has a wet blanket smothering most investor enthusiasm. We are looking for S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock investments that offer us a clear “story” which includes expanding earnings and a catalyst for change that we can understand. The pickings are thin. Active trading without a clear understanding of catalyst and expanding earnings is a failed proposition.
- We like how SMC holding Nvidia (NVDA $13.09) was able to buck the overall negative NASDAQ performance today and appears to be possibly “coiled” to spring HIGHER. We know that there is room for individual stock stories to emerge and perform, as demonstrated in early June in our investment selection of Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $10.95) and its subsequent significant move higher (over +65% at one point).
- Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.
- Market participants are stymied. There are certain bright spots (eBay; Lumber Liquidators; …) but overall things are certainly “stuck in the mud”. Opportunities will present themselves – they always do, but patience is certainly required at this point in time.
- US housing industry continues to be a bright spot with last week’s housing start data for JUNE (which measure the number of new single and multi-family dwellings initiated for construction) helping the equities (stock) market to remain somewhat stable. At SMC, we have pointed out – since Hovnanian’s (home builder) excellent quarterly earnings report in early June – that the home building industry is improving. Shares of Hovnanian are UP +27% since our report. We pointed it out for risk tolerant investors, but did not initiate an SMC position at the time.
- Traditional material processing companies, represented by U.S. Steel, Alcoa, AK Steel, and others have all been hammered with concerns of global growth diminishing and shares lie at or near decade lows, excluding the March 2009 bottom in the market. Successful U.S. enterprises like Dell, Inc. and Hewlett Packard, Inc. also continue to print new lows – even though we know that some of the largest private capital funds have purchased significant shares at much higher prices (in the case of Hewlett Packard). At this point it doesn’t matter. Selling begets more selling.
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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 | Nvidia | NVDA | Holding | 6/19/2012 | -1.4% |
| 2 | eBay | EBAY | Holding | 6/19/2012 | +0% |
– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –
We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time. We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that. What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:
- Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
- Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
- Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
- Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
- Covered Call ideas
- Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
- Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)
At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership. Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later. Let’s proceed …
| Nr. | Introduction Date |
% Gain or (Loss) (Introduction) |
Co. | Ticker | Possible Opportunity NOW | STOP Level or Other Considerations | Possible TARGET | REWARD / Risk Ratio |
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes + |
| 1 | 3/7/2012 | +/- 0% | Vermillion | VRML | WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) | With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard. |
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,337.89 | Index | FLAT |
| DOW-30 | 12,676.05 | Index | UP |
| NASDAQ | 2,854.24 | Index | Flat |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | FLAT | FLAT | FLAT |
| Intermediate | FLAT | FLAT | FLAT |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).
– Today’s Highlights –
See above.
– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –
– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –
S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –
S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)
I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)
M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time? Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).
P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)
L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)
E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)
Please see our Executive Summary, above.
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
1.2140 USD = 1 Euro |
USD / EUR |
Dollar = DOWN slightly against the euro.
|
Gold |
$1,607 |
Ounce |
Gold = UP
|
Oil |
$88.79 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = FLAT
|
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
3.9% |
Percent |
Down below 4%.
|
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
1.41% |
Percent |
Down now now firmly below the important 2% line.
|
1 Yr. CD |
1.00 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com
Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional. Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers). By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.
- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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