– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

June 1, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

 

  • Globally, the equities markets were DOWN BIG today!  S&P 500 (-2.40%); DOW (-2.22%); NASDAQ (-2.82%)
  • Market Overview = FEAR is now entering the market, leading to quite possibly strong irrational moves.  The market has – at least for the moment – entered the realm of unpredictability.   The broader market looks like it may re-test the $125 line on the S&P 500 (SPY), which would be a -50% retracement of the entire six month rally off the October 4, 2011 lows.  With fear and irrationality come OPPORTUNITY for those willing to step forward when the market is bleak.  We will be ready.   Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart
  • With today’s decisive break to the south of the SPY $130 line, and now landing BELOW  the broader market (S&P 500) 200 day moving average (200 MA), the markets COULD bounce aggressively higher on Monday / Tuesday – once participants come to the realization that the world is not coming to an end, or selling may continue until it exhausts itself.  One thing is certain, selling is nowhere near exhaustion levels at this time.  The fact however that STILL 60,000 jobs were added to the economy and the IDEA that the Federal Reserve could implement more stimulus, may at some point cause buyers to step forward and purchase shares of excellent companies that are oversold – like FORD (F) , GM, Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Freeport McMoran (FCX), US Steel (X), Alcoa (AA), Dell (DELL) .

  • We made 3 Successful Investing Videos today profiling the market and reviewing many individual company stocks…  Please click on these links to watch them –
    Successful Investing Video 1, Video 2, and Video 3
  • We transmitted our SMC Intra-Day Alert on our plan to immediately sell our holdings of Ford and Alcoa, and raised 100% cash.
  • Although the market could abruptly swing higher on Monday, the market has now entered a realm of strong unpredictability.
  • If the market continues to sell-off, there will be excellent opportunities for outstanding returns when the market reverses.  We are now watchful for a key, upside reversal day – preferably after some REAL exhaustion selling
  • Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA $6.50) held its own today and was quiet in the face of the market’s big slide.  The shares are showing excellent relative strength.

 

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Ford Motor Co. F Sold Today 5/17/2012 -0.7%
2 Alcoa, Inc. AA Sold Today 5/17/2012 – 3 %
We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

 

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date
% Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)
Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.
For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,278.04 Index Down
DOW-30 12,118.57 Index Down
NASDAQ 2747.48 Index Down

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term *Down* *Down* *Down*
Intermediate FLAT FLAT FLAT
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).


– Today’s Highlights –

As we mentioned on Wednesday, FEAR appeared to be returning.  Today VALIDATED this thought.  The catalysts for this resurgence in fear is driven by REAL DATA showing weakness in the economy ahead –

  • Today’s U.S. “Job’s Report” – The Non-Farm Payroll Report from the U.S. Department of Labor showed “merely” 68,000 jobs gained for May, which is ONLY HALF what was expected.  (Please click here for a link to today’s “Job’s Report”)
  • China’s Purchasing Manager’s Index came at 50.4, which is significantly weaker than we expected

When we combine forward looking weakness in the economy with the trouble in Europe with the euro and Greece, Spain, and Italy – and some other sovereign debt crisis “flavor of the month” – we simply have investors heading to the sidelines with their cash.  The stock market is extremely liquid and when cash begins to flow “out”, stocks will get sold hard and enter “over-sold” conditions.

The last 3 years have showed us that investors have been willing to buy on extreme weakness in stocks.   We will continue to do so and profit, while looking for transformational companies that are longer term investments.

 

 

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –

(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

Based on current earnings, many equities are selling at an extreme discount.  Consider Dell, Inc. (DELL $12.07) selling at just over $12/share, representing an approx. price / earnings ratio of 7.15.  Dell is no exception.   The list is long and involves metal processing companies like U.S. Steel (X $19.31) or Alcoa (AA $8.30), Hewlett Packard (HPQ $21.25), or even JP Morgan-Chase (JPM $31.93).

Extreme weakness in the markets will offer very nice opportunities.  We are watchful.  Please see our 3 Successful Investing videos that we placed in your Executive Summary.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.243 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = UP MORE against the euro!

Gold

$1,622.10

Ounce

Gold = back and forth as the dollar moves against the euro.

Oil

$83.26

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Down big

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

3.76%

Percent

Down below 4%.

10 Yr. Bond Yield

1.74%

Percent

Flat and now firmly below the important 2% line.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

 

 

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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