– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

May 11, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • The broader U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were basically FLAT today – in the face of difficult news.  The DOW was down a bit, but did put in a rally off of this morning’s lows.  A bounce higher is possible for the markets. Please see our Today’s Highlights section for more details and insights. 

     

  • Market Overview = (From Wednesday) Our short term trend change to *DOWN* last week has been validated.  The markets are still in an intermediate uptrend.  Concerns GLOBALLY about the survival of the euro in its current form and how a euro restructuring could take place without global disturbances, is putting a bid under the U.S. dollar (buyers are pressing the Greenback HIGHER against the euro).   Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.  

  • Former SMC holding Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $6.35) – which we profited from over a year ago –  finally has received FDA-Panel approval for their weight-loss Lorcaserin.  The company has received an upgrade to “buy” from brokerage(s).  Here is an SMC Successful Investing Video on the company.

  • Further allegations at Chesapeake Energy (CHK $14.80) torpedoed the company’s shares this afternoon.  This time the concerns are off-balance sheet liabilities (unreported!).  There may eventually be an opportunity that emerges here.  Please see this SMC Successful Investing Video on the company as well as on the company Nvidia (NVDA $13.21) .  Nvidia posted better earnings than expected last night AND guided HIGHER for the next quarter. 

  • From Wednesday … We have reported – using our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method – about Alcoa being an interesting investment because there may be an unusual coordinated impact of reduced aluminum smelting capacity pushing the price of aluminum HIGHER – if global demand remains strong for the metal at forecast levels of +7%.  This SMC idea is being confirmed (to a degree) from this very interesting article.  Please click here for this information that Asia SUPPLY of aluminum may be dropping (Bloomberg).

  • J.P. Morgan-Chase had a lot of explaining to do today as revelations of a $2 billion trading loss hit the wires.  We cover the details some below in Today’s Highlights.  Here is a good article explaining some of the details (Reuters).
  •  

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)

We liquidated all holdings yesterday.  We will report our performance on these investments soon on our SMC Watchlist.   Performance in Molycorp, Alcoa, and Ford was miserable.  Performance in eBay and Linked-In = Good.

We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date
% Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)
Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,353.39 Index Flat
DOW-30 12,820.60 Index Down
NASDAQ 2,933.82 Index Flat

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term DOWN DOWN DOWN
Intermediate Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

One definition of the German term “Schadenfreude” is finding satisfaction in the discomfort or in the unpleasant turn of events of another person.

The markets were in a bit of a turmoil today as news was released this morning that J.P. Morgan-Chase (JPM $36.79)  reported a $2 billion trading loss from a failed hedging strategy.   Jamie Dimon is the CEO at JPM and he has been a very outspoken critic of the Volcker rule reform, which – among other things – limit the trading that banks can do.

Whenever you become an outspoken critic of something, you place yourself immediately at risk of attracting attention when something goes wrong in the camp that you are defending.  That’s what has happened today for JPM and JPM’s CEO Dimon.  There are many in the political and financial world who are finding satisfaction in Mr. Dimon’s discomfort.

On a bit more weakness and then stabilization in the JPM share price, we may consider a purchase of the shares.  JPM is an excellent bank.  Our close banking friend in Tacoma reminds us however that there is striking difference between the style of New York based banks and their brethren outside of Manhattan.  The New York based banks have a much bigger hand in trading activities and today we are seeing that orientation work to JPM’s disadvantage.

The broader market as measured by the S&P 500 ETF the (SPY $135.61) is bouncing right at “support” of the $135 line.  Yesterday’s market behavior in light of Cisco System’s (CSCO $16.50) and today’s behavior on the revelation of JPM’s $2 billion problem is demonstrating that the market wants to at least bounce a little.  Both of these events were pretty strong hits against the market, yet yesterday and today, the markets have found support at mid-morning and attracted buyers.

In spite of Cisco’s disappointing economic forecast and today’s trouble at JPM, the market is attracting some buyers.  We’re watchful.

Europe – and more specifically – Greece’s ability to form a government that honors its most recent commitments to the European Monetary Union, is a unknown at this time.

Earlier this week, it appeared to us that the market is simply waiting for the next “shoe to drop” before it heads a bit more south (down).  We’ll see  There may be a bounce ahead.

 

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –

(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

This morning, the company Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $6.35) received FDA “Panel” recommendation by a vote of 18 in favor to 4 against – that the FDA approve the company’s drug called Lorcaserin to assist in weight loss by reducing appetite.  One and a half years ago, Stock Market Companion members enjoyed strong gains in ARNA as the stock entered into the FDA approval process.  We sold on strength BEFORE the FDA Panel decision, taking our profits.  The FDA Panel at that time requested more safety evidence and more testing – so the shares immediately dropped from over $7/share down to $1.50/share.  The shares are – today –  over +50% higher on this favorable FDA Panel review and have received BUY ratings from at least one brokerage company.  We are alert for more opportunity ahead with this stock, but are interested in seeing some form of lateral consolidation built before we engage the stock.  Please see this Successful Investing Video on ARNA.

While I was in Oklahoma last week, some people asked me about beaten down Chesapeake Energy company (CHK $14.80).  I looked at the chart and called it a “wait and see”.   Yesterday, the shares appeared to be putting in some form of bottom, but today in the late afternoon there were further allegations of impropriety against the company – this time related to off-balance sheet debt!  Please see this Successful Investing Video on Chesapeake Energy.

Yesterday after the close, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA $13.21) came out with favorable earnings and the stock gapped up higher this morning, and sold off throughout the day.  We cover this also in the above video for Chesapeake Energy.  NVDA has received a broker upgrade to approx $20/ share in price.  That would be a +51% return.  We’ll have to see how the shares develop.

 

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.2916 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = HIGHER against the euro.

Gold

$1,584

Ounce

Gold = Lower, as the U.S. dollar moves Higher.

Oil

$95.57

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Lower, as concerns about global recession increase.

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.03%

Percent

Flat

 

10 Yr. Bond Yield

1.85%

Percent

Flat and now firmly below the important 2% line.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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