– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

April 18, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Markets modestly weak.  The broader market is navigating its 50 day moving average in price and consolidating early year gains.  S&P 500 (-.41%), DOW (-.63%), NASDAQ (-.37%)
  •  

  • Market Overview =  The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart. The U.S. broader equity market (S&P 500) is bouncing around near its 50 day moving average in price.  As we have written over the past days, the S&P 500 ETF chart that we show below, shows strong support for the markets at 135.  The markets may test that level before market participants decide what to do next. 

  • Today we reflect on the idea of Apple, Inc. executives moving into other leading business roles at other American companies like J.C. Penney.  We talk about this NOT because this is a problem for Apple (we believe that Apple has a “deep bench” of excellent leaders), but because this will hopefully have FAR REACHING positive influence on American businesses for the next generation.  We contrast these leaders with the more – may we say “self-interested” leaders like Mr. Bob Nardelli who came from the school of GE’s Mr. Jack Welch.   We are not here to “pick on” Mr. Nardelli – but rather to highlight what may be something of great significance to investors who can catch “wind” of a new, well positioned leader at a company whose board made a great decision – like J.S. Penney’s board may have. 

  • Retailer Wet Seal, Inc. (WTSLA) has a CEO – Susan McGalla – who has been on board since Jan. 2011.  She comes with 14 years of experience from American Eagle Outfitters.  From WTSLA’s own Press Release last year … “Ms. McGalla joins the Company after her 14-year tenure with American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. She most recently served as its president and chief merchandising officer, leading a portfolio of four brands reaching customers ranging across the children’s, teen and young contemporary demographic spaces. Ms. McGalla served in key roles throughout American Eagle Outfitters’ high-growth era, a period during which that company grew to nearly 1,100 stores and $3.0 billion in annual revenue.”  Although we personally like more conservative clothing, we reflect on this possible POSITIVE development in our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing section below.  WTSLA shares sell for $3.47 now.

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 ZAGG, Inc. ZAGG Holding 2/28/2012 -1%
2 Eight by Eight EGHT “Toe-In” Holding
3/9/2012 -9%
3 EBAY EBAY Holding 3/14/2012 -3%

4

Ford Motor Co. F Holding 3/15/2012

-9%

5 Linked-In LNKD Holding 3/26/2012 +3%
6 Molycorp MCP Holding 3/29/2012 -5%
7 Alcoa AA Holding 4/11/2012 -0%


We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date
% Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)
Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,385.14 Index Down
DOW-30 13,032.75 Index Down
NASDAQ 3,031.34 Index Down

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term DOWN/FLAT DOWN/FLAT DOWN/FLAT
Intermediate Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

The broader market – represented by the S&P 500 is navigating around its 50 day moving average in price.

We know from last week that China’s 2011 GDP final numbers at +8.1% (approx.) was a  relief for the global markets concerned about a domino effect starting due to the slowdown in Europe over the last 6 – 9 months.

The markets are “digesting” their gains from January / early February.


S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –

(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

Some time ago we reported about the idea that some leading Apple, Inc. executives are now moving into other U.S. businesses – specifically J.C. Penney. (JCP $34.53) – and taking their vast excellent experience with them.  We are not saying this because we believe that this will have a negative affect on Apple.  To the contrary, we believe that Apple, Inc. has a “deep bench” of talent.    We are saying this because I believe that Steve Jobs’ CREATIVITY and Apple Inc.’s incredible execution of their business plan over the last 8 years, will have far reaching POSITIVE impact on American and global businesses for a generation.

Individual investors would be wise to keep an eye out for excellent former executives from Apple, making transformational  changes at other businesses.  If those businesses have publicly traded stocks, there may be real share value multiplication available for shareholders of those companies.

If you received no other idea that this from us at Stock Market Companion, it may be enough to change a person’s retirement portfolio considerably – if an opportunity presents itself and the investor can SEE that investment and go after it.

For the record, I would like to briefly contrast these Steve Jobs “schooled” executives with those schooled by Mr. Jack Welch from General Electric.  Men like Mr. Bob Nardelli have come out of the school of Jack Welch and I do not much care for the fruit of these leaders.  Shareholders at Home Depot did NOT benefit much from Mr. Nardelli’s tenure there as CEO for over  7 years.  The share price went nowhere and the company drifted – while Mr. Nardelli earned 10’s of millions of dollars.

I am personally hopeful for much more from Steve Jobs’ influence on a wave of business leaders in America, than Mr. Jack Welch’s.

Speaking about new CEO’s … at Wet Seal Co. (WTSLA $3.47) a new CEO is at the helm for over 12 months, coming from American Eagle Outfitters.  Her name is Susan McGalla.  The Wet Seal clothing style doesn’t match my own more conservative taste, but Mrs. McGalla may have something to really prove here.  Wet Seal has done very well this last year in their internet sales.

Here is the Wet Seal Press Release from a year ago, describing Susan McGalla.

 

The WTSLA shares may be attractive down in the mid $3’s for investors with patience.  We will soon introduce our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Analyzer to help you quantify and visualize such possible opportunities.  We are soon rolling out our Investor’s Tool Kit which has this tool and many others for individual investors.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.3115 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Flat

Gold

$1,643.20

Ounce

Gold = Flat

Oil

$103.17

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Flat

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.03%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

1.98%

Percent

Down more as risk appetite for equities diminishes.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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