– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

April 11, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Today the markets stabilized higher.   S&P 500 (+.74%), DOW (+.70%), NASDAQ (+.84%)
  •  

  • Market Overview =  The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.
    The quarterly earnings reporting season officially started with Alcoa reporting earnings yesterday after the close.  Alcoa surprised market participants with much stronger earnings than were expected, helping the overall tenor of the market – at least for the day.  On Monday we mentioned -“If Alcoa is successful at restricting aluminum SUPPLY in the face of stable or even possibly strengthening DEMAND in the second half of the year, the share price can really move higher.”  Today the shares of Alcoa moved markedly higher.  Financial firm Stifel gives Alcoa a $13/share target on raised earnings expectations of $0.72/share for 2012, which places Alcoa’s current P/E at approx. 13.8.
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  • We initiated a position in Alcoa shares this morning and transmitted two separate SMC Intra-day Alerts.  Our entry is at $9.98 and our stop is wide at approx. $8.50.
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  • Here are the Successful Investing videos that we produced today on Alcoa –


Video 1

Video 2

Video 3

Video 4

Video 5

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report on economic conditions throughout the U.S. this afternoon.  The results for February and March are very favorable.  We include sentences from the Summary and a link to the full report, below in our Today’s Highlights section. 

  • Please let us know if you would like us to perform a S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method analysis on a stock that has your interest.  Support@stockmarketcompanion.com
  •  

  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com
  •  

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 ZAGG, Inc. ZAGG Holding 2/28/2012 -1%
2 Eight by Eight EGHT “Toe-In” Holding
3/9/2012 -13%
3 EBAY EBAY Holding 3/14/2012 -4%

4

Ford Motor Co. F Holding 3/15/2012

-8%

5 Linked-In LNKD Holding 3/26/2012 -5%
6 Molycorp MCP Holding 3/29/2012 -5%
7 Alcoa AA Holding 4/11/2012 -1%


We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date
% Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)
Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 2/29/2012 -6% Proshares Ultrashort
SP 500 or QQQ
SDS or QID Capture short term retracement in
the market.
A stop just below today’s low. 5%-15% 6:1 No longer currently an opportunity for entry.  There was profit on the second and third day after this announcement of +4% ; that profit would have only be available for nimble investors.
2 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.
3 3/30/2012 -3% Research in Motion RIMM Entry below $15.10 $12.85 +10% – +25% 2:1 We’re giving this one a wide stop, which cuts-into our Reward / Risk ratio.  Entry at 14.79.  Stopped out on this one at $12.80.

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,368.71 Index UP
DOW-30 12,805.39 Index UP
NASDAQ 3,016.46 Index UP

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term DOWN/FLAT DOWN/FLAT DOWN/FLAT
Intermediate Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

Last Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report “Jobs Report” provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor, combined with a resurgence in concerns about sovereign debt in Europe have impacted the markets like a wet blanket on a small fire.  Last night’s earnings report released by Alcoa however helped to reverse the negative sentiment acting on the market.  We will have to see if market participants can again warm up to the idea that the U.S. economy continues to expand modestly.

This afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve released its Beige Book – which is a report on economic activity across the 12 Federal Reserve districts.  The report is released 8x / year.

Here are the first paragraphs from the Summary section from the Beige Book =

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid-February through late March. Activity in the Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts grew at a moderate pace, while Cleveland and St. Louis cited modest growth. New York reported that economic growth picked up somewhat. Philadelphia and Richmond cited improving business conditions. The economy in Minneapolis grew at a solid pace and Kansas City’s economy expanded at a faster pace.
Manufacturing continued to expand in most Districts, with gains noted in automotive and high-technology industries. Manufacturers in many Districts expressed optimism about near-term growth prospects, but they are somewhat concerned about rising petroleum prices. Demand for professional business services showed modest to strong growth and freight volume was mainly higher. Reports on retail spending were positive, with the unusually warm weather being credited for boosting sales in several Districts. While the near-term outlook for household spending was encouraging, contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that rising gas prices could limit discretionary spending in the months to come. New-vehicle sales were reported as strong or strengthening across much of the United States. Tourism increased in most reporting Districts. Residential real estate showed some improvement, with many contacts citing expansion in the construction of multi-family housing. Activity in nonresidential real estate increased or held steady in most Districts. Agricultural conditions were generally favorable. Mining activity expanded and oil extraction rose, while natural gas drilling slowed. Banking conditions were largely stable, with some improvement seen in loan demand. Several Districts reported increased credit quality.
Hiring was steady or showed a modest increase across many Districts. Difficulty finding qualified workers, especially for high-skilled positions, was frequently reported.

This Beige Book report continues to show a favorable picture of the broad U.S. economy.  Please click here for the complete report.

Here are the PDF presentation slides from Alcoa’s Q1 earnings question and answer session last night.  You will find here as well, favorable indications for the economy.  Please notice how the Alcoa top management uses the Purchasing Manager’s Index to measure economic conditions.  We do the same here at Stock Market Companion.

These PDF presentation slides are excellent.  For those interested in learning the details of business conditions at Alcoa, these slides are a must read.


– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm

(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

 

Yesterday afternoon – after the markets closed – Alcoa (AA $9.90) reported first quarter 2012 earnings that were well above consensus estimates.  Shares of Alcoa gapped-up this morning on the news.  At Stock Market Companion, we initiated a position at $9.88, sent out an Intra-Day Alert, and a second Intra-Day Alert with these 5 short  Successful Investing videos explaining what we see happening at Alcoa in terms of our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method –


Video 1

Video 2

Video 3

Video 4

Video 5

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.3110 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Flat, with the euro at near lows.

Gold

$1,660.40

Ounce

Gold = Flat

Oil

$102.55

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Flat

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.03%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.04%

Percent

Down a bit as risk appetite for equities diminishes.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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