– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

April 4, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Today the markets FELL SHARPLY on two primary concerns: Spain and Sandisk Corp’s negative earnings announcement (pre-earnings announcement).   Please see Today’s Highlights, below.  S&P 500 (-1.02%), DOW (-.95%), NASDAQ (-1.46%)
  • Market Overview =  The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.  

  • “What we know now” = Please see Today’s Highlights for our review of key market drivers influencing the markets at this time. 

  • Crude oil took a sharp turn south today.  Short term investors may consider investments in quality airline stocks, like Southwest Airlines (LUV $8.38) or Alaska Airlines (ALK $36.33).  From a daily chart standpoint, Southwest looks more promising than others and offers near term support under which a judicious stop may be placed.  $7.80 would be suitable for a stop. 

  • On Friday we will cover Southwest Airlines with a few videos in the context of our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method. 

  • The U.S. dollar has risen strongly against the euro as investors take risk off the the table and head for liquid security. 

  • We are anticipating a bit more downside turbulence related to Sandisk’s earnings pre-announcement today.  We have adjusted our short term trend to down.  Please see our *Market Trends Table*, below. 

  • We believe that we have entered a period that offers opportunity for equities (stocks) more than at other times.  We ARE concerned about short term trends and in our holdings Linked-In and ebay are the ones most affected by tech sector troubles.  Zagg is a niche retailer / tech relative that showed good strength today, but also could fall strongly if the market wanes.  Molycorp needs some momentum, but is also in a niche space.  In other words, we are preparing ourselves to give these stocks a bit more room to breathe than we normally would.  We do not want to too quickly head to the sidelines.  Our earlier +8% gains on eBay give us some cushion on that one.  We are most concerned from a failing momentum standpoint about Linked-In. 

  • At Stock Market Companion, we were stopped out of our Advanced Investor Opportunity investment in Research in Motion (RIMM).  A bottom is not in yet on that one apparently.
  •  

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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 ZAGG, Inc. ZAGG Holding 2/28/2012 +1%
2 Eight by Eight EGHT “Toe-In” Holding
3/9/2012 -12%
3 EBAY EBAY HOLDING 3/14/2012 -4%

4

Ford Motor Co. F Holding 3/15/2012

-4%

5 Linked-In LNKD Holding 3/26/2012 -3%
6 Molycorp MCP Holding 3/29/2012 +1%


We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date
% Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)
Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 2/29/2012 -6% Proshares Ultrashort
SP 500 or QQQ
SDS or QID Capture short term retracement in
the market.
A stop just below today’s low. 5%-15% 6:1 No longer currently an opportunity for entry.  There was profit on the second and third day after this announcement of +4% ; that profit would have only be available for nimble investors.
2 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.
3 3/30/2012 -3% Research in Motion RIMM Entry below $15.10 $12.85 +10% – +25% 2:1 We’re giving this one a wide stop, which cuts-into our Reward / Risk ratio.  Entry at 14.79.  Stopped out on this one at $12.80.

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,398.96 Index Down
DOW-30 13,074.75 Index Down
NASDAQ 3,068.09 Index Down

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term *DOWN/FLAT* *DOWN/FLAT* *DOWN/FLAT*
Intermediate Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

The markets were pushed down today by news of Spain possibly not able to meet its obligations.  In the U.S. this news about Spain was important as it triggered some profit taking, but at Stock Market Companion, we feel that markets were particularly NEGATIVELY impacted by the company Sandisk’s PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT that earnings and DEMAND are going to be weaker than expected.  The company will report more fully on April 19th.  Sandisk’s memory devices are required across the technology landscape, so when they give a signal that demand is weakening, that sends a strong signal to investors.  The tech sector and the banking sector were both heavily impacted today.

Market sentiment can be perhaps summarized as entering a period of cross-currents.  We’ve experienced a strong rally in the marketplace and there is plenty of room for profit taking, while the market maintains its overall bias.  The short term trend may now even be turning negative, but we believe that this current uptrend will maintain its overall bias.  Abrupt challenges to this uptrend could of course occur – caused by a geo-political event (like an attack on Iran) or other calamity or change in overall economic climate of significance.

Here’s what we know –

  1. Recent Federal Reserve Beige Book results tell us that the U.S. economy is continuing to expand very modestly.
  2. Yesterday’s release of Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes from mid-March surprised market participants a bit due to the mention of the Fed’s ability to pull-forward its plans for monetary tightening = possible interest rate hikes.  This should surprise no one.  The Federal Reserve has been holding rates down for a long time and plans to continue to keep rates low.  This doesn’t mean that they cannot make changes to their policy and take wise, preemptive steps to avoid getting behind the inflation fighting curve.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has proven that he is willing to take action when necessary – and it will be necessary for him at some point to make at least significant symbolic steps to stay ahead of inflation – by raising rates a 1/4 or a 1/2 point in increments that would be reasonable and useful.
  3. Weekly new jobless claims in the U.S. are trending down = a sign that employment is at least stabilizing.
  4. Today’s March ADP Employment Report  numbers indicate that another approx. 209,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm, private business economy from Feb. through March.  Please click here for the full report.
  5. Employment Reports for both December and January were revised HIGHER today = indicating more growth than was expected occurred.
  6. Politically and from a standpoint of fiscal conservatism, the White House and the Republican held U.S. House of Representatives are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum – but after last year’s wrestling match and with this year’s election ahead – neither appear willing to take chances to try to make helpful changes to our U.S. fiscal expenditure overload.
  7. The U.S. automotive industry posted Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) figures for new car sales that reached early 2008 levels for the first time.  In February, the SAAR rate of new car sales reached 15 million.  Friends, this is good news.  March numbers however declined a bit.  We can simply say this – the U.S. automotive industry is on the mend.
  8. New housing starts and sales remain very distressed.  However – prices for new and existing home sales strengthened a bit recently, new housing starts improved, and interest rates for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage remain very low (approx. 4%).
  9. Corporate earnings are strong.
  10. The European Union is currently experiencing a mild recession.  This is reducing orders for goods out of China and causing China’s growth also to falter.  We are seeing very little strength in the materials environment pricing like steel and copper or aluminum.  If the shares of leading companies in these sectors – like Freeport McMoran (FCX) for copper, or U.S. Steel, or Alcoa sink further we will be looking to pick some up at a steep discount.

European Monetary Union (EMU) rim nations that are over-indebted – like Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal will continue to capture attention.  Today the news was negative about Spain’s ability to meet obligations.  This will continue for a long time into the future.

– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm

(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Institutional Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

 

We are holding shares in these companies –

  • Ebay
  • Eight by Eight (EGHT)
  • Ford
  • Linked In
  • Molycorp
  • Zagg

We were stopped out today on our Advanced Investor Opportunity holding, Research in Motion.

We like the stories of each of the above listed companies.  Ebay, Linked-In, Zagg, and Eight by Eight are technology stocks that could get pushed around some.  Linked-In in particular needs momentum to keep going, so we will see what we should do there.  We do not want to step too quickly to the sidelines on these stocks.

We believe that we have entered a period of time that – overall – favors equities (stocks).

At the request of a member-friend, we will review Southwest Airlines (on Friday) and Priceline.com (on Monday), as well as continue to seek company stories that are compelling.  Monsanto for instance reported excellent earnings today.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.3149 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Strong against the euro.

Gold

$1,622.80

Ounce

Gold = Flat

Oil

$101.98

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Down

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.03%

Percent

Increasing a bit as 10 yr. yields improve.

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.24%

Percent

Flat but continuing to improve.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

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Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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