– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

March 30, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Today the markets were DIVERGENT – the DOW advanced and the NASDAQ was flat / slight decline.   S&P 500 (+.37%), DOW (+.50%), NASDAQ (-.12%) 

  • Market Overview =  The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.
     

  • Today marks the end of the 1st quarter.  Market statisticians have measured this quarter as the strongest 1st quarter performance since 1998.  That’s 14 years ago! 

  • We purchased shares in Research in Motion (RIMM $14.70) today at approx. $14.79 and placed our stop at $12.85 and we are identifying this more in the category of an Advanced Investor Opportunity due to RIMM’s challenges ahead.  We sent out our SMC Intra-Day Alert email complete with 2 videos to describe what we are seeing in the context of our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method.  Please see more below.

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  • Today’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment measures for March were nicely positive, as were the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures.  Please see more below.

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  • Some high flying pharmaceutical companies like Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMLN $24.96) and Vivus (VVUS $22.36) need to consolidate recent moves in a constructive manner before we can engage them safely, with measured risk.

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  • Shares of Vermillion (VRML $2.02) have returned back above $2.00/ share this week, after its 3+ week pullback on a surge that has placed it on our table of Advanced Investor Opportunities.  We are watchful for a move ABOVE $2.75 / $3.0 before we get interested.

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  • Did you know that SMC members ALWAYS get 1 free month for each new paying member they recommend who joins our 15Minute Stocks Program?  It’s a great way to help friends and gives everyone something new to talk about!  Please feel free to contact us at 360-695-6985 or email support@stockmarketcompanion.com for a special, significant discount code to give them.

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  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com

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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Mitek, Inc. MITK Holding 1/12/2012 +38%
2 ZAGG, Inc. ZAGG Holding 2/28/2012 -5%
3 Eight by Eight EGHT “Toe-In” Holding
 3/9/2012 -10%
4 EBAY EBAY HOLDING 3/14/2012 -1%

5

 Ford Motor Co. F Holding 3/15/2012

-4%
6 Linked-In LNKD Holding 3/26/2012 +0%


We cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

 

– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –

We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time.  We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that.  What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:

  • Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
  • Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
  • Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
  • Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
  • Covered Call ideas
  • Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
  • Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)

At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership.  Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later.  Let’s proceed …

Nr. Introduction
Date		 % Gain or (Loss)
(Introduction)		 Co. Ticker Possible Opportunity NOW STOP Level or Other Considerations Possible TARGET REWARD / Risk
Ratio		 S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes +
1 2/29/2012 -6% Proshares Ultrashort
SP 500 or QQQ		 SDS or QID Capture short term retracement in
the market.		 A stop just below today’s low. 5%-15% 6:1 No longer currently an opportunity for entry.  There was profit on the second and third day after this announcement of +4% ; that profit would have only be available for nimble investors.
2 3/7/2012 +/- 0% Vermillion VRML WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard.
3 3/30/2012 +/-0% Research in Motion RIMM Entry below $15.10 $12.85 +10% – +25% 2:1 We’re giving this one a wide stop, which cuts-into our Reward / Risk ratio.

For S.E.C. compliance, here too we must  identify clearly whether we have a position.  We may introduce lightly traded stocks for ideas for you, but we will not be able participate in them.  We will maintain a wide margin of compliance with the S.E.C.
All investments involve RISK.  Please remember, at SMC there is no way that we can match our ideas with the suitability or risk tolerance of each member – We therefore cannot and DO NOT provide investment advice to individuals. Please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,408.47 Index Flat
DOW-30 13,212.04 Index UP a bit (consolidation)
NASDAQ 3,091.57 Index Flat / Down

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ
Short Term UP/FLAT UP/FLAT UP/FLAT
Intermediate Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

Today marks the end of the first quarter for 2012.  The broader market, which we identify as the S&P 500 and measure using the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) increased approx. 12% during this quarter.  According to market statisticians (Briefing.com) this is the best first quarter performance since … 1998.  That’s 14 years ago!

Today we have these final data points to consider – both of which are a positive signal for the U.S. markets:

  1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment measured 76.2 for March – which is pretty strong, considering the price of gasoline at the pump and the elevated unemployment rate.
  2. Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measured 62.2.  When the PMI measures above 50, this means that the economy is typically expanding.

 

– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –

– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)


Yesterday evening, the ubiquitous Blackberry manufacturer – Research in Motion (RIMM $14.70) reported quarterly earnings that at first glance looked quite negative.  At Stock Market Companion we reviewed earnings and as the volume in the shares traded today began to swell significantly and the share price began to rise above the mid-morning highs we evaluated the merits of initiating an investment in the shares, and proceeded to purchase shares.  Due to the rather difficult challenges ahead for RIMM, we have categorized this purchase as an investment related to our Advanced Investor Opportunity category, rather than our 15Minute Market Update Fund.

We sent out our SMC Intra-Day Alert email identifying our purchase price, stop order, and provided 2 videos that describe this investment in terms of our S. I. M. P. L. E. Stock Investing Method.

Here is our the email, complete with videos for your review this weekend –

Dear Member-Friend,

At Stock Market Companion we’ve just purchased shares in Research in Motion (RIMM) at $14.79, with a stop at $12.85.  We know that the story at Research in Motion is very uncertain and stressed, so we have categorized this investment in our Advanced Investor Opportunity category.

We have made two SMC Successful Investing Videos to explain what we see happening at RIMM now and give the background for our investing.  Here are the videos –

Video 1

Video 2

In these videos, we cover the technical and fundamental characteristics of this investment.  We also cover the idea that this could be the “Kitchen-Sink” quarter for RIMM, where they announce everything possible that is negative happening in the company and that the future may be a bit brighter than is currently expected.

Did you know that the company has $2.1 billion in cash – which represents approx. $4/share – and the company has NO DEBT?  We also point out that the company added approx. $600 million to its cash balance over the last quarter.

To avoid any misunderstandings, please remember that we do NOT make any investment recommendations for any individual.  We cannot know the investment suitability and risk tolerance of each member.  Each investor is on their own.  Please see our disclaimer below.

Your – Stock Market Companion

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.3342 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Flat

Gold

$1,671.90

Ounce

Gold = Flat

Oil

$102.93

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Lower for the week.

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.03%

Percent

Increasing a bit as 10 yr. yields improve.

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.22%

Percent

Flat but continuing to improve.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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