– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
March 26, 2012
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
Published 3 Days / Week
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Monthly Subscription $49.95
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-Executive Summary-
- Today the markets SOARED. S&P 500 (+1.39%), DOW (+1.23%), NASDAQ (+1.78%)
- Market Overview = The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart. If the markets can continue and build on today’s move in the days and weeks ahead, then our thoughts of “consolidation” are not accurate. Today’s move emphasizes continuation in the UPTREND.
- Today, it was BULLISH conclusions to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech this morning that drove the markets strongly higher. We cover this in detail in Today’s Highlights, below. We recommend reading Mr. Bernanke’s speech – Here is the link directly to the U.S. Federal Reserve website and his speech. His explanation of Okun’s Law is clear and insightful.
- This morning, I was busy with some important activities with my children – so I missed our ideal maximum price on the entry for an investment in Linked-In (LNKD $101.38). I went ahead and initiated the investment later in the day anyway AND added-to to positions in Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK $12.56) and Zagg, Inc (ZAGG $11.02). We transmitted an SMC Intra-day Alert as soon as possible, afterwards. Please see our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method section, below.
- Today’s strong move validates our broader perspective … (We repeat from the last 10 days or so) … “The DOW has pressed above 13,000. This marks a very significant move in the market. We have adjusted our trend table, below. The market does not yet appear in any way exhausted, although pull-backs are always a possibility. In the November time frame we thought about the 10 year or so bond rally that has taken place as now finished. We are perhaps moving into a period of extended favor for equities (stocks). Interest rates have nowhere to go but UP, which will pressure bond prices lower.”
- Shares in Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA $3.01) are up +100% in the last 8 weeks or so, due to perceived increased chances for its weight loss drug Lorcaserin to be reviewed in Europe AND re-reviewed in the USA. At SMC we highlighted and profited strongly from ARNA in 2010. We need to see now a bit of a lateral consolidation in the shares before we reconsider an investment.
- Did you know that SMC members ALWAYS get 1 free month for each new paying member they recommend who joins our 15Minute Stocks Program? It’s a great way to help friends and gives everyone something new to talk about! Please feel free to contact us at 360-695-6985 or email support@stockmarketcompanion.com for a special, significant discount code to give them.
- Please click here to send us your feedback. Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com
– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 | Mitek, Inc. | MITK | Holding | 1/12/2012 | +49% |
| 2 | ZAGG, Inc. | ZAGG | Holding | 2/28/2012 | -1% |
| 3 | Eight by Eight | EGHT | “Toe-In” Holding |
3/9/2012 | -14% |
| 4 | EBAY | EBAY | HOLDING | 3/14/2012 | +2% |
|
5 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | Holding | 3/15/2012 |
-4% |
| 6 | Linked-In | LNKD | Holding | 3/26/2012 | -1% |
– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –
We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time. We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that. What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:
- Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
- Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
- Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
- Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
- Covered Call ideas
- Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
- Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)
At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership. Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later. Let’s proceed …
| Nr. | Introduction Date |
% Gain or (Loss) (Introduction) |
Co. | Ticker | Possible Opportunity NOW | STOP Level or Other Considerations | Possible TARGET | REWARD / Risk Ratio |
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes + |
| 1 | 2/29/2012 | -6% | Proshares Ultrashort SP 500 or QQQ |
SDS or QID | Capture short term retracement in the market. |
A stop just below today’s low. | 5%-15% | 6:1 | No longer currently an opportunity for entry. There was profit on the second and third day after this announcement of +4% ; that profit would have only be available for nimble investors. |
| 2 | 3/7/2012 | +/- 0% | Vermillion | VRML | WAIT for break above 3/6 highs for entry ($2.95) | With 12 Million shares outstanding, this company could possibly really run on news that its OVA1 test becomes a standard. |
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,416.51 | Index | UP |
| DOW-30 | 13,241.63 | Index | UP a bit (consolidation) |
| NASDAQ | 3,122.57 | Index | UP |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | *UP/FLAT* | *UP/FLAT* | *UP/FLAT* |
| Intermediate | Flat/UP | Flat/UP | Flat/UP |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).
– Today’s Highlights –
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s TRANSPARENT observations and comments this morning about the markets, appropriate policy decisions, and strategies for improving unemployment sparked enthusiasm across the board for equities (stocks) today.
There are many people with different opinions about the role and success / failure of the Federal Reserve System. At Stock Market Companion, we teach that it is very important to understand the role and function of the Federal Reserve and that any debate about the successes and failures of the Federal Reserve System is a good thing – as long as it doesn’t keep you from engaging the markets successfully on your own.
Regardless of your personal opinion about the nature and application of our Federal Reserve System, one thing is clear – this Federal Reserve Chairman – Mr. Ben Bernanke – is of the unusual kind. He wants transparency in policy, is very pro-active, and leads by example.
Please click on this link for a read of today’s speech by Mr. Bernanke. This link is directly from the U.S. Federal Reserve website. Please remember, no matter what Mr. Bernanke talks about, the markets are first going to filter what he say’s through the lens of MONETARY POLICY and what his comments may mean about FUTURE INTEREST RATES. Today is no exception. The momentary conclusion by the markets is that low interest rates are going to be in place for a long time yet and that this is bullish for growth.
If you take a few minutes to click on the link above to Mr. Bernanke’s speech and scan through it, you will learn about OKUN’s Law. This is very interesting and useful for any investor to understand.
– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method tm –
– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –
S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –
S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)
I = Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)
M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time? Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).
P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)
L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)
E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)
We’ve went ahead later in the day to initiate a position in Linked-In (LNKD $101.38) and to boost our holdings in Zagg, Inc., and Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK $12.56).
I was delayed today due to important activities with my children this morning, so I missed my ideal limit on the entry to LNKD. I went ahead with the investment anyway and we sent out this SMC Intraday Alert –
Dear Member-Friend,
We’ve gone ahead and initiated an entry in Linked-In (LNKD $102.43) based on our short analysis from last week. Please see our most recent Successful Investing video set of 3 videos on LNKD, to see what we are basing our decision upon. Our entry today is a bit higher than the ideal entry max. of $101.58 that we identified last week. I proceeded anyway with the investment near today’s highs. Another approach would have been to place a buy order lower and see if I could pick up shares on a pull-back.
Our stop is wide … down at $84.80.
We’ve also proceeded to add-to on ZAGG and Mitek (MITK) this afternoon, near today’s highs on each.
For assistance on LNKD, below is our latest SMC UPDATE related to the company, complete with video links.
To avoid any misunderstandings, please remember that we do NOT make any investment recommendations for any individual. We cannot know the investment suitability and risk tolerance of each member. Each investor is on their own. Please see our disclaimer below.
Your – Stock Market Companion
SMC Intra-Day Update on Linked-In (LNKD) from last week …
Last week we mentioned that as careful investors we have an aversion to “running after the market”. This means that when the background market has already run hard for 5.5 months and increased 27%, we like to find ways of buying on strong pull-backs or dips. In other words, we would like to buy strong companies, on temporary weakness in their share prices, in the context of an uptrending market.
Over the last few weeks, we have brought the company Linked-In (LNKD $100.53) to your attention and made several SMC Successful Investing Videos about the company. YESTERDAY, the investment bank Goldman Sachs gave Linked-In an UPGRADE and an initial target of $130/share. An advance to $130/share would represent an approx. +30% gain on today’s closing share price of $100.53.
Based on our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method, for risk tolerant investors – we view Linked-In as a BUY here with a stop just below $87 or for more risk tolerant investors, just below $85. We have not yet purchased the shares at Stock Market Companion.
The official breakout “pivot point” (recent highest point of resistance on the share price advance) is $96.75. Giving ourselves a 5% window above this break-out pivot point, we would call the entry good until approx. $101.58.
Note to more risk tolerant investors – Please do NOT let our own current risk tolerance at Stock Market Companion keep you from implementing your investment strategies.
Here are 3 SMC Successful Investing Videos that cover our S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing Method – completely focused on Linked-In.
To avoid any misunderstandings, please remember that we do NOT make any investment recommendations for any individual. We cannot know the investment suitability and risk tolerance of each member. Each investor is on their own. Please see our disclaimer below.
Your – Stock Market Companion
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
1.3358 USD = 1 Euro |
USD / EUR |
Dollar = Down
|
Gold |
$1,693.80 |
Ounce |
Gold = UP
|
Oil |
$107.11 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = Flat
|
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
4.03% |
Percent |
Increasing a bit as 10 yr. yields improve. |
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
2.26% |
Percent |
Continuing to improve. |
1 Yr. CD |
1.00 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com
Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional. Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers). By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.
- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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