– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
February 13, 2012
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
Published 3 Days / Week
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Monthly Subscription $49.95
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From 2/8
-Executive Summary-
- The markets moved higher today… S&P 500 (+0.57); DOW (+0.57%); NASDAQ (+0.95%)
- Market Overview = The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF SPY) chart.
- Broadly speaking, it is best now to wait to see how this market behaves before engaging more individual stocks. BUT this is not so simple – there are some interesting opportunities presenting themselves. See below.
- On Friday, we mentioned Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Clearwire (CLWR) as developing stories… Please see this short SMC Successful Investment Video covering these ideas and an overview of the broader market.
- Please see your SMC Successful Investing Routine “A” and your SMC Individual Stock Investing Flowchart in the Financial Academy Section.
- Greece remains at the center of attention. Please see below.
- Special “Thank You!” to SMC Member Chad. He reported these great results since becoming an SMC member – “I have been using your 15Minute Market Update Program on our Florida Stock Market Simulator and have moved from last place to first place among our 6 groups. Good information.” – Chad. B. Yulee, Fla. USA.
- Did you know that SMC members ALWAYS get 1 free month for each new paying member they recommend who joins our 15Minute Stocks Program? It’s a great way to help friends and gives everyone something new to talk about! NOW you can call 360-695-6985 or email support@stockmarketcompanion.com for a special, significant discount code to give them.
- We introduce a NEW Feature to the SMC 15Minute Update Program = Advanced Investor Opportunities … Please see below for details.
- Please click here to send us your feedback. Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com
– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 |
Alcoa, Inc. |
AA |
SOLD | 1/3/2012 |
+5% |
| 2 | Dendreon, Inc. | DNDN | SOLD | 1/11/2012 | -2% |
| 3 | Mitek, Inc. | MITK | Holding | 1/12/2012 | +29% |
| 4 | EBAY, Inc. | EBAY | Holding | 2/1/2012 | +2% |
| 5 | Cree, Inc. | CREE | SOLD | 1/18/2012 | +18% |
| 6 | Apple, Inc. | AAPL | SOLD | 1/30/2012 | +9% |
– Stock Market Companion – ADVANCED INVESTOR OPPORTUNITIES –
We will streamline this section with a link to a table in the days ahead.
Our objectives are to teach principles of successful investing and to offer you as many real and excellent investment ideas and opportunities as possible. When we launched Stock Market Companion in October 2009, we knew that we would eventually be faced with the situation where we had more ideas and more opportunities presenting themselves than we would be able to invest in ourselves.
We want to make sure that we present you excellent opportunities that are unfolding NOW, even when we do not engage them ourselves. Many of you are already using our SMC Watchlist and monitoring it to see such opportunities unfolding, on your own. But we don’t want to be confined with just what is in our SMC holdings and in our SMC Watchlist.
A recent, excellent example of this: On 1/13/2012 we presented the idea that Sears Holdings (SHLD) director Mr. Eddie Lampert purchased approx. $140 million of SHLD shares on the open market between approx. $27.50 and $30 / share. The stock jumped higher the next day and for us was “overextended” – but the shares roared on another +60% in a few days! For some SMC members who are more risk tolerant, SHLD may not have appeared overextended and our thoughts on the investment may have kept them from participating or participating more fully. We want to give ideas and offer valuable insights, but Get out of the Way!
We are introducing this section so that at SMC, we can “get out of the way” and let you decide for yourselves and not influence members so greatly with our own risk-tolerances and objectives at the time. We WILL point out key characteristics that we think are important to consider, or logical areas to place stops or offer realistic targets based on our over two decades of investing experience, but we will be less inclined to judge these opportunities beyond that. What we list in this section will be cover many dimensions:
- Growth stories following our successful S.I.M.P.L.E. investing method
- Unusual opportunities arising from oversold or overbought conditions
- Opportunities presenting themselves due to key technical developments in the shares (key support and resistance line engagement, high volume clues…)
- Stocks that offer excellent dividend yields and measurable risk
- Covered Call ideas
- Higher risk but possibly quite unique investment opportunties
- Excellent mutual funds and ETF ideas (including off-shore)
At this time, we are including this section in the SMC Basic Membership. Our advisors may determine that these insights should be offered outside of the basic membership for a modest additional fee. That decision is for sometime later. Let’s proceed …
| Nr. | Introduction Date |
% Gain or (Loss) (Introduction) |
Co. | Ticker | Possible Opportunity NOW | STOP Level or Other Considerations | Possible TARGET | REWARD / Risk Ratio |
S.I.M.P.L.E. Notes + |
| 1 | 2/3/2012 | Micron Tech. | MU | Later … LONG only AFTER the shares tumble and stabilize on tragic news today of CEO’s sudden death in experimental single-passenger aircraft. |
NA | NA | NA | Shares have NOT offered an entry. If the shares can go up with the loss of a good CEO, there may be more upside ahead. |
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,351.77 | Index | UP = +9.13 points |
| DOW-30 | 12,874.04 | Index | UP = +72.81 points |
| NASDAQ | 2,931.39 | Index | UP =+27.51 points |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Flat | Flat | Flat |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).
– Today’s Highlights –
Today the market was focused on perceived favorable news out of Greece that the legislature there had successfully passed the austerity package necessary to receive additional funding from the European Central Bank, European Union and the IMF. At Stock Market Companion, we aren’t sure yet how this is all going to wrap up. European Finance Ministers still have opportunities to veto what is going on. That’s good – Because promises to make cuts from politicians are NOT worth very much.
This week is loaded with important economic data to be released –
Tuesday – January Retail Sales
Wednesday – January Industrial Production
Wednesday – Crude Oil Inventories ending 2/11.
Thursday – Initial jobless claims for last week.
Thursday – Housing starts and building permits
Thursday – Philadelphia Fed (Greater Philadelphia Area Business + Manufacturing Conditions)
U.S. political actions related to the Fiscal Year 2013 budget and upcoming payroll tax decision point. February 29th marks the deadline for a decision on what to do about U.S. payroll taxes. If nothing is done, they will return to 6.2% from 4.2%. At this moment, conservatives in Washington are considering extending the payroll tax reductions through the rest of the year, without finding a way to fund these losses in revenue for the government. This would be a return to the idea that somehow as a nation we can proceed with both tax cuts and no spending cuts, which we know doesn’t work. We’ve proved that for the last decade – which is why we are in such terrible shape financially as a nation.
Today the price of oil jumped $2/barrel as tensions in the Middle-East rose between Israel and Iran.
All of the above items will have an impact on the markets.
From Friday, here’s what we know –
- The market is due for some form of pullback.
- The catalyst for this pullback was the trouble in Europe regarding Greece. We covered this on previous days and in an SMC Intra-Day Alert early this morning. See below.
- Some market leading stocks like Apple, Inc., have not yet shown much weakness (so the situation doesn’t YET look too grave, although this could change if Greece does default).
- Corporate earnings are good, but stocks have traveled a long way higher in many cases. Strong profit taking can set-in.
- The U.S. economy is expanding slowly.
- Many stocks are behaving predictably. There are some disappointments, like Dendreon (DNDN) however. It’s come right back in from its excellent breakout.
- The employment situation in the U.S. – although bleak – has improved some.
- Opportunities are continuing to unfold – like Alcatel-Lucent this morning and others like Mitek Systems…etc…
- The banking industry and housing industry is in the early innings of “righting-itself”
- We have followed our S.I.M.P.L.E. investing strategy and engaged the market well at key transition points.
- The Federal Reserve is being very accommodative – which is good for stocks.
– S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investingtm –
– (Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings) –
S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core concepts –
S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)
I = Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)
M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time? Don’t Fight the Market! We know the vast majority of stocks move in the direction of the overall market).
P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)
L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)
E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU $2.19)
Clearwire (CLWR $2.27)
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
1.3153 USD = 1 Euro |
USD / EUR |
Dollar = UP
|
Gold |
$1,721.50 |
Ounce |
Gold = Flat
|
Oil |
$100.68 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = Flat
|
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
3.91% |
Percent |
Flat |
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
1.97% |
Percent |
Flat |
1 Yr. CD |
1.00 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com
Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional. Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers). By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.
- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
- Please click here to send us your feedback. Let us know how we
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