– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

January 20, 2012

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published 3 Days / Week
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From Wednesday

-Executive Summary-

  • The broader market closed FLAT / UP today.  The NASDAQ which closed slightly negative was divergent to the DOW’s stronger performance.  S&P 500 = +.07%; DOW = +0.76%; NASDAQ = -0.06%
  • Market Overview = The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF) chart.
  • The broader market, which we use as a “road map” for determining the right time to invest and when to raise cash and avoid trouble, is the S&P 500.  We use the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to monitor this broader market because it gives us a clear indication of volume each day.  The SPY has advanced now 3 weeks in a row AND advanced +1.6% higher this week.
  • SMC holding Cree, Inc. (CREE $27.19) ADVANCED +12% in the 2 days immediately FOLLOWING our entry.  We described our purpose in entering this investment in these short video segments – SMC Successful Investing Video Segment 1 and SMC Successful Investing Video Segment 2
  • This week brought forth encouraging economic data – see Below.
  • Alcoa kicked-off earnings season last week.  Last night Google, Inc. (GOOG $585.99) brought forth earnings that missed strong Wall Street estimates.  Business however is good.
  • Friday’s Off-Topic Menu = A few personal photographs below from my family.  This week brought our first snow storm this winter and Mikelle’s 8th birthday.
  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Boeing, Co. BA Holding 12/22/2011 +1%

2

DEX-One Corp.

DEXO

Sold this Week

12/29/2011

+16.4% (Final)

3

Alcoa, Inc.

AA

Holding 1/3/2012

+4%

4 Dendreon, Inc. DNDN Holding 1/11/2012 -7%
5 Mitek, Inc. MITK Holding 1/12/2012 +3%
6 Cirrus Logic CRUS Holding 1/17/2012 +5%
7 Cree, Inc. CREE Holding 1/18/2012 +12%

In our opinion, Boeing (BA) is perhaps best purchased on a pull-back.  MITK may still be in buying range for those interested in a small / micro-cap investment ; DNDN is on a steep curve and is very speculative, but also quite possibly explosive.  DNDN may be building a high pennant formation that may resolve sharply higher.   Alcoa is less risky compared to DNDN and is now quite possibly entering a new uptrend.  CREE is NO LONGER buyable without a pullback.  CRUS and DNDN share similar patterns.    If the financial picture in Europe all of a sudden darkens, then all of these positions will be quite possibly sharply negatively impacted.   Please see our disclaimer below.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,315.38 Index FLAT = +0.88 points
DOW-30 12,720.48 Index UP = +96.50 points
NASDAQ 2,786.70 Index Flat = -1.63 points

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term Flat / UP Flat / UP Flat / UP
Intermediate Flat Flat Flat
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to see a bigger, easy to read chart on a separate browser tab window).

 

– Today’s Highlights –

The S&P 500 has now crossed above the October 2011 highs in a well defined uptrend, in anticipation of possibly better economic times ahead.

Economic data for the U.S. economy has so far NOT disappointed those of us who have participated early in anticipation of good news ahead.  It’s not always this good, but we will gratefully receive it.  The market has rallied, beginning October 4th.  On the evening of October 4th, we sent out an SMC Special Alert to all members – identifying this possible KEY reversal day for the markets.

Here’s the good news on the economic front for this week –

  • Initial jobless claims are sharply LOWER this week than last week and confirm the DOWNTREND in initial jobless claims.  This means that companies are shedding less workers and many have “right-sized” their businesses for the current economic conditions that we have.
  • Capacity utilization remains stable at +78.1%
  • Housing starts for December were 657,000, down from 685,000 in November.  This data includes single family and multi-family unit construction.  This can be characterized as good news, even though the numbers declined.  Why?  Because as production decreases, the hope is that more inventory is taken out of the system.  At some point, aggregate demand will exceed inventory and recovery will occur.
  • Existing home sales for December reached 4.61 million units in December; a +5% increase over November.

 

 

 

– S.I.M.P.L.E.  Stock Investingtm
(Where each investment begins with a Story and ends with Earnings)

S.I.M.P.L.E. Stock Investing is built upon these core areas –

S = Story (What is / are the key catalyst(s) behind the company of interest?)

I = Investor Interest (Is the stock chart showing investor interest = buying or share accumulation?)

M = Market (Is the background market favorable for investing at this time?  This recognizes that 9 out of 10 stocks move with the overall market, according to decades long research from William O’Neil.).

P = Person or Product (Is there a particular person or product that makes the story work for this investment?)

L = Leader (Is the company a leader in its industry group or is its product a leader in its market?)

E = Earnings (Are current quarterly earnings and annual earnings growing?)

 

Today we sent this Successful Investing Video on the company 3D Systems, Inc.,  (DDD $18.20) informing of what may be favorable developments ahead.

Please click on this link for the video and remember to right click the video to see control features associated with re-winding and playing the video.

Dalene (far right) making dinner with the children.

Lucas (in red shirt) was a guest with us a few days.

Mikelle’s 8th Birthday with “Home-made caterpillar
cake.
Children make this year’s first snowman.  (L to R =
Noelle, Jordan, and Gabrielle = Arms Up!)

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

 

US Dollar

1.2932 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = DOWN some.

Gold

$1,664.00

Ounce

Gold = Flat

Oil

$98.39

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Down

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

3.91%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.03%

Percent

Upward move.

1 Yr. CD

1.00

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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