– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
December 23, 2011
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
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-Executive Summary-
- Firmly higher. The markets all put in nice, positive moves today. Volume was extremely low, due to the upcoming Christmas holiday.
- Market Overview = The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. The broader market, represented by the S&P 500 ETF SPY – is heading back into the lateral range established since August. Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF) chart. A move below 118 on the SPY will again put this rally in jeopardy. A move above 126.60 … will be favorable.
- Keep an eye on the S&P 500 SPY ETF and a move above 126.60/127.10 and ultimately 129.42. These are close-in resistance levels that the market has to successfully overcome to move significantly higher.
- The SPY ETF crossed and closed above its 200 day moving average today. It’s also above its 50 day moving average. These are favorable developments. Just on Tuesday, the SPY headed strongly south from its 50 day moving average and things didn’t look good. The short term nature of the market has improved considerably over the past 3 days. We need a bit more volume to give us some more clues.
- Apple, Inc. shares are perking UP too. See below. Here’s your SMC Daily Chart of Apple, Inc.
- We cover November metrics released today from the U.S. government, below.
- Here’s the upcoming holiday schedule for the U.S. equity and bond markets – The markets are closed on December 26th (this Monday) in observance of Christmas. The markets will also be closed on January 2nd in observance of New Year’s Day.
- Please notice that we avoided these heartache investments in 2011, while studying some of them carefully and informing you about our assessments. We made some excellent choices in shorting silver, buying Apple, BAC, FCX, GTIV, … We did however have our share of losses in others and in Bank of America, after purchasing BAC the day BEFORE Warren Buffett’s announced investment – which was excellent – if we hadn’t re-invested for a loss on the pullback. Our performance tally for SMC investments for 2011 is approx. +3% for the year. As in each year before, we have learned and shared what we know and see. We look forward to more excellent opportunities in 2012. We are privileged to serve you all.
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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 | Gentiva Health | GTIV | Holding | 11/15/2011 | +19% |
| 2 | Boeing, Co. | BA | Holding | 12/22/2011 | +/- 0% |
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
(AS of 15:00 EST on Wednesday, December 7, 2011)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,265.33 | Index | UP = +11.33 points |
| DOW-30 | 12,294- | Index | UP = +124.35 points |
| NASDAQ | 2,618.64 | Index | UP = +19.19 points |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Flat | Flat | Flat |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size).
– Today’s Highlights –
Although the markets are very quiet today, there these noteworthy developments based on economic data that was released today –
- November data for personal income, disposable personal income, and personal consumption were released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Click here for their detail report.
– In summary, personal income rose 0.1%, while disposable personal income decreased less than 0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. All of these modest increases and decreases represent billions of dollars. The positive piece for the U.S. consumption based economy is the +0.1% in expenditures.
- November Durable Goods Orders increased +0.3% and the prior month data was revised HIGHER to +1.5%. Click here for a detailed report from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Bloomberg’s Bob Willis has this summary of what the November durable goods orders are telling us – Please click here. Boeing’s increase in orders was an important component for November. At SMC, we purchased shares in Boeing this week.
Overall, the U.S. equities market is perking UP a bit. Four days ago, things looks a bit grim as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tagged 120. That was Tuesday. The market was at risk of possibly cascading further south on that technical development. Instead, we have seen a 3 day rally in stocks that has changed the short term technical tone in the markets considerably. We haven’t seen a “run to the exits” toward the end of the year that we could have seen as fear increased relative to developments in Europe and Europe’s inability to decisively address their debt troubles. Instead we have seen the markets quiet down and put in rather constructive days this week, after Tuesday. The SPY is sitting just ABOVE its 200 day moving average and above its 50 day moving average. Please notice the upward trend of the blue line on your SMC Daily Chart of the SPY, which represents the 50 day moving average. A rather bullish development will occur when / if the 50 day moving average crosses ABOVE the 200 day moving average (represented on your SMC chart with the red line).
– Story-Stock Investing –
Shares of Apple, Inc. (AAPL $403.33) has crept back UP above the $400 line today. Volume is of course low due to the overall low volume in the markets prior to Christmas (today’s volume was about a 1/3 of normal daily volume). We are interested in the shares if they continue to show resilience above $400 and begin to push above $408/$410.
Please recall with Apple, Inc. we expected a parabolic run to occur following the passing of Steve Jobs, in light of the overwhelming sympathy and worldwide agreement of the absolute quality and dominance of their product, the Christmas sales of i-Pads and all things Apple, and in light of the idea that certain major funds had perhaps held back in ownership in response to questions about Steve Jobs’ health and ultimate leadership transition at the company. Leadership transition at the company has apparently been very smooth and sales at Apple are strong. We are however cognizant of the fact that Apple disappointed Wall Street investors in October for missing earnings expectations, although the actual earnings numbers are still excellent. Please notice in the SMC Daily Chart of Apple, Inc. below how the share price “touched” the 200 day moving average on 11/25, and has since moved nicely higher. It was exactly such a move in June that we took advantage of to capture an ultimate +24% move in Apple shares this year. When leading stocks tag their 200 day moving average lines, and the story behind the stock is still relevant, institutional investors often add-to or initiate new positions at those moments.
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
1.3047 USD = 1 Euro |
USD / EUR |
Dollar = flat |
Gold |
$1,608.50 |
Ounce |
Gold = flat |
Oil |
$99.87 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = UP
|
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
4.04% |
Percent |
Flat |
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
2.03% |
Percent |
Down |
1 Yr. CD |
1.16 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
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Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
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- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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