– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

December 12, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Down.  Uncertainty related to the financial future of Europe again had market participants heading to the sidelines.  See below.
  • Market Overview = Unchanged from Friday.  The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. The broader market, represented by the S&P 500 ETF SPY is “backing and filling” here at the $126 area.  Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF) chart.
  • In November, at SMC we reported about the flooding in Thailand affecting the availability (supply) of computer components.  Today, Intel, Inc. (INTC $23.94) reduced its quarterly revenue expectations by $1 billion due to diminished personal computer production related to the Thailand flooding parts shortages.  Shares in Intel sank approx. -5%.
  • Many stocks are erasing some of their gains made over the past two weeks in light of today’s market behavior.
  • Here’s a good summary article describing the underlying themes behind today’s market action. (Bloomberg)
  • China uses approx. 9.06 million barrels of crude / day.  The USA uses 19.1 million. Click here for details, tucked into an article about China exports to Europe.
  • Occupy-Wall Street delivers at least one success story.
  • Here is quick thinking by a 6 year old boy!
  • South Korea stays on target.
  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Gentiva Health GTIV Holding 11/15/2011 +4%

GTIV, below $6.20 and above $5.10 we believe is in a buying range.  If the market falls off the planet some time soon due to a credit freeze-up in Europe, GTIV will sink too.  On this as well as all our other ideas, please see our disclaimer below.

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

 

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

(AS of 15:00 EST on Wednesday, December 7, 2011)

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,236.5 Index Down = -18.69 points
DOW-30 12,021.62 Index Down = -162.64 points
NASDAQ 2,612.26 Index Down = -34.59 points

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term Flat/UP Flat/UP Flat/UP
Intermediate Flat Flat Flat
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart

 

 

Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size.

 


 


 

– Today’s Highlights –

Today’s action in the equities market place simply validates this idea = Market participants are not willing to risk additional exposure to the markets when there is so much uncertainty in Europe.

We mentioned on Friday that what we didn’t like about the markets sudden reversal higher on the news of closer collaboration in Europe was the lack of volume behind the move.  Today in the markets, we get to see why = There is no confidence in what Europe is embarking on.  There is no clarity that this will resolve over-leveraged sovereign nation’s cost of accessing capital.

From an gross-domestic-product growth or recessionary argument for Europe, today’s market participants are seeing a lot of trouble ahead for 2012.  Share prices of publicly traded companies are taking it in the chin that next year’s earnings may be quite lean as recessionary pressures increase in Europe and then spread to other parts of the world – like the U.S.

Back in November, we were setting our bar high for re-engagement in an Apple, Inc. investment, partly due to the uncertainties surrounding the impact on production and near term quarterly earnings due to flooding in Thailand and the impact this flooding may have on hard-disk drive manufacturers.  Today the markets received very clear signals from Intel Corp. (INTC $23.86) that the shortage of disk-drives on the market would limit personal computer (PC) production and sales.  Intel reduced its gross revenue projections for the next quarter by $1 billion.  This is taking quite a bit of enthusiasm out of the tech market in general.


– Story-Stock Investing –


On Friday, we pointed out that both Boeing Co. (BA $70.42) and Nike (NKE $96.66) were developing excellent price patterns from their charts.  We also mentioned that both companies have brought forth excellent news over the last quarter –

Nike had delivered very strong earnings expectations based on a +16% increase in real orders.

Boeing had delivered very strong quarterly earnings, reported what may be their largest order ever received for civilian aircraft, and announced settlement with the National Labor Board the dispute involving the new Boeing production plant in South Carolina.

In summary – both the technical (stock price performance picture from the price chart) and the fundamental (earnings, financial considerations) aspects for both Boeing and Nike were adding up to what appears to be good investment ideas.

Today, we have the benefit of seeing how individual stocks respond to the overall market, even when both companies have truly excellent merits for investment.  The market is down strongly and both Boeing and Nike have reversed their positive technical picture and appear quite able to sink back down into their lateral (horizontal) price developments – until the background market improves sufficiently to allow these stocks to advance higher.

Today, Boeing announced an increase to their quarterly dividend of $0.02 to $0.44/share.  If we multiply $0.44×4 = $1.76.  $1.76 / today’s share price of $70.55 = +2.5% annual dividend yield.  This sweetens the idea behind an eventual investment in Boeing even more.  In Boeing we see a cyclical company possibly entering a strong earnings growth  cycle, which may bring strong share price appreciation, in addition to a nice underlying dividend.

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

 

US Dollar

1.3190 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = UP

Gold

$1,669.10

Ounce

Gold = DOWN

Oil

$98.01

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Down

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.04%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.02%

Percent

Down

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

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Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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