– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr.	Co.	Ticker	Action	Entry Date	Current Gain (Loss)
1	Gentiva Health	GTIV	Holding	11/15/2011	-12%

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

 

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

 

Market	Price (Today’s Close)	Unit of Measure	Today’s Direction
SP-500	1,192.55	Index	UP = +33.88 points
DOW-30	11,523.01	Index	UP = +291.23 points
NASDAQ	2,527.34	Index	UP = +85.83 points

 

 

– Market Trends –

 

Trend	SP-500	DJ-30	NASDAQ
Short Term	Down	Down	Down
Intermediate	Flat	Flat	Flat
Long Term	Lateral	Lateral	Lateral

 

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

 

 

– Market Perspectives –

 

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

 

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart

 

 

Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size.

 

 

 

– Today’s Highlights –

 

Even in a period of what appears to be complete uncertainty relative to the market’s next move, we knew on Friday that there was an increasing probability of a move higher in the markets.  Why?  Because volume had not significantly increased as the market peeled-off several -100+ days and our favorite individual stocks were rapidly approaching key support zones, back near the lows from early October.   But the problem with Europe and its sovereign debt crisis, AND our own U.S.  lurking debt issues (super-committee failure, automatic deficit reduction efforts…) are simply on a scale now that exceeds our momentary risk tolerance.  Truly, our appetite for large gains in the markets has been tempered by this ongoing, unsolved dilemma surrounding debt.

Let’s face it – no one knows the extent to which the market will move next in response to negative news from Europe or something out of Washington.  At this point, it’s much more pleasant to wait-out these periods of risk than to run after each inflection in the market.

Today, the markets are moving higher on hopes for a large International Monetary Fund (IMF) involvement in Europe, that is being completely denied by the IMF itself.  Other rumors include Germany taking action with preferred bonds.

Knowing what we do about Europe after a decade of personal involvement in business development there, it is unwise to bet on a quick solution out of Germany.  Not only is it seasonally the wrong time to expect anything, but also

We will use this time to discover new stories of interesting stocks to come, AND to improve our educational content delivery by improving our website and adding more features.

Today, new home sale data was released for October.   There isn’t much to cheer about.  307,000 new homes were sold in October.   Tucked into this next paragraph (USA Today Money Section) are some key measures that will help you monitor progress in the housing market –

New-home sales increased 1.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, the Commerce Department said Monday. That’s less than half the 700,000 that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.
Last year’s 323,000 new homes sold were the fewest since the government began keeping records in 1963. This year isn’t faring much better.
While new homes sales represent a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Summarizing this new home sales information, you have learned these measures –

• 700,000 NEW homes sold in a month is what economists consider to represent a healthy housing market.
• At 307,000 homes sold in October, we are less than half the value of what would be considered a healthy market.
• Each NEW home built creates an average of three jobs / year.  This is very interesting and gives you a measure for what we already have identified as a very important job creator in the U.S.

Here is a full article on the status of the home-building industry from USA Today’s “Money” section.

– Story-Stock Investing –

For those of you looking for a strong “oversold-bounce” – Crocs Shoes, Co.  (CROX $15.79) may have the ingredients for a sprint higher.  Earnings for the company, released on October 17th were a bit of a disappointment but still very positive.  The company has sold off considerably from its $31.45 July-end highs.  A near stop at $14.60 is a reasonable idea.

Alcoa (AA $9.46) has perhaps put in a “higher low”, which also offers a nice near term support for a stop.

In the retail sector, Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF $46.93) shares have been thrown under the bus for a -38% drop and appear positioned to recover some of those steep losses.

Shares of Deere and Co. (DE $76.50) also appear to be ready to inch higher after last week’s excellent earnings report.

At SMC, we are holding shares in Gentiva Health (GTIV $5.75) which shot higher this morning with the strength of the background market.

 

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

 

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