– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

November 11, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

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-Executive Summary-

  • Today is Veteran’s Day.  We give our special thanks to those of you who are serving or have served in our military forces, to protect us.
  • The markets have found their footing and were strong today.  Good.
  • DOW (+2.19%); S&P500 (+1.95%); NASDAQ (+2.04%)
  • Crude oil advanced strongly in price today, in spite of the expectation of slower industrial growth next year.  See below.
  • Greece and Italy are proceeding to establish new political leadership.  This is what strengthened the markets today and yesterday.
  • Market Overview = The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified at its inception and profited from. We mentioned on Wednesday that the market has had 4 distribution days since the market pivot bottom on October 4th.  Four such distribution day’s within a defined uptrend, within 3 or 4 weeks would normally mark the end to the rally.  The market currently rests ABOVE the lateral consolidation from August – October.  Good.  Click here for today’s SMC S&P 500 (ETF) chart.
  • Gentiva Health (GTIV $5.43) looks good.
  • Research in Motion (RIMM $18.49) … in the news with strong share buying at a hedge fund.  See below.  This may be a decent bottom fishing opportunity.  Click here for the SMC Daily Chart.
  • Starbucks purchases Evolution-Fresh.  A story of capitalism in action.  See the exciting story below.
  • Tonight offers a special event – A basketball game on an aircraft carrier. It started with an idea 10 years ago!  Wow.
  • At SMC we are deep in a website redesign.  Need to beg your pardon for not coming up yet with the teaching on “stops”.  Both are coming soon!
  • Please click here to send us your feedback.  Let us know how we are doing – We are here to serve you. Support@Stockmarketcompanion.com

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)

We are in 100% cash.   On this as well as all our other ideas, please see our disclaimer below.
 

 

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market Price (Today’s Close) Unit of Measure Today’s Direction
SP-500 1,263.85 Index UP = +24.16 points
DOW-30 12,153.68 Index UP= +259.89 points
NASDAQ 2,678.75 Index UP = +53.60 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term Down Down Down
Intermediate Flat Flat Flat
Long Term Lateral Lateral Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart

Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size.



– Today’s Highlights –

So far, the broader market is holding ABOVE the lateral consolidation range TOP established by market action from August through October.  This is good.

In your 15Minute Market Update from Wednesday, we were very concerned about the likelihood of a follow-through down into the middle of this same lateral consolidation, which for most people didn’t feel very “lateral” at all.  With the market ripping DOWN -400 points and then tearing back HIGHER roughly the same amount over many days in the course of three months, calling it a lateral consolidation is like trying to explain to an airline passenger that his flight held an altitude range between 20,000 and 30,000 feet.  But what he was experiencing was sudden shifts in altitude of 10,000 feet.  He doesn’t want to hear about altitude ranges, he wants his money back and his feet on the hard ground!

Nonetheless, the market IS holding onto its uptrend that was initiated in the early hours of October 4th, when the market plunged BELOW its August lows, and purged many investors who had their stops in place (either firm orders or simply psychological limits).  The market then proceeded to rapidly attract new buyers and money and roared higher by the end of the day (October 4th), representing a classic GAP-Down, key reversal day which laid the foundation for a very high probability new change in direction for the market – which it did.  Many SMC subscribers profited from it strongly AND learned a lot in the process –
  • The characteristics of a key reversal day.
  • How to use it to your advantage.
  • An idea of what stocks to use to participate in the early phases of a new rally.

Today the University of Michigan published its consumer sentiment measures for November and the number of 64.2 represented an improvement over the previous month measure of 60.9.  But that was at approx. 10 AM and the market was already in full-swing, “risk-on” rally mode from the starting bell, due to perceptions that things are improving in the political landscape in Europe with new leadership being selected for Italy and Greece.

This week we reported that General Motors was indicating worsening economic conditions.  We also reported that expectations for GDP growth in 2012 in Germany are approx. 0.8%, vs. +3% in 2011.  Nonetheless, December delivery of West Texas crude oil has increased in price today above $99/barrel, UP from $76/barrel in September / October.  If economic growth is expected to drop, we would expect crude oil to also drop in price (as long as supply remains stable).

We’ll wait and see.

 

– Story-Stock Investing –

 

To do our work well at Stock Market Companion, we process a tremendous amount of information each day.  This early a.m. there was a news story about a young man who was discharged from the US military in Iraq who is now participating in the Occupy Wall Street protests in Washington, D.C.  At this point, I need to beg your pardon because we didn’t save the article, and I can’t find it right now – otherwise I would provide you with the link and be able to keep this a bit shorter.

The summary of the story is this – The young man was saying that he went to war to fight for capitalism, became disillusioned while in the military to the point that he caused himself to be dishonorably discharged, now can’t find a job in the U.S. that pays more than $10/hour, his dishonorable discharge disqualifies him from the new G.I. bill that would help him pay for school, and therefore has become a socialist because the capitalistic structure that he was defending has failed to meet his needs.  The journalist slanted the story very sympathetically towards the young man.

The very next article that I then read was this one about the company Evolution-Fresh, being purchased by Starbucks, Inc. this week for $30 million.  Click here for the Business Week article. Another article that I read about this Starbucks acquisition stated that the founder of Evolution-Fresh is Jimmy Rosenberg.   Evolution-Fresh is his SECOND juice company.  The first one “Naked Juice” he built starting in approx. 1983 and sold to Pepsi in the early 90’s.  He then built Evolution-Fresh that he sold this week to Starbucks.

Look at this brilliant website from Evolution-Fresh.  It is a model of simplicity, vibrant color, and purpose.

The idea here is – Mr. Rosenberg has a very different understanding of what capitalism is all about than the young man protesting in Washington, D.C.   Capitalism doesn’t offer hand-outs, it offers the most effective and efficient structure for people to build and participate in businesses that allocate resources of all kinds to meet the demands of an ever-changing market of individuals.  Capitalism offers a very powerful tool that allows people to create wealth legally.

In his commencement address in 2005 to the Stanford University graduating class (click on link to see it directly from the Stanford site – Video icon is there in the text), Mr. Steve Jobs mentions that he naively picked an expensive college (Reed College, Portland OR) that was causing him to spend the entire life savings of his working class parents for tuition.  After six months he didn’t see the value in it, didn’t know what he wanted to do with his life and couldn’t justify the cost to his parents.  So he dropped out and began to study what interested him.  The rest is Apple, Inc. history.   Friends, we need to teach our children about capitalism and economics so that they understand it and can apply it for good.  This is one of the main purposes of Stock Market Companion.

Mr. Rosenberg and Mr. Jobs are from an older generation.  We must educate the next generation about the benefits and current mis-application and misunderstandings of capitalism.

“Occupy Wall Street” would do well to focus on the failure of the modern leadership of American enterprises to reward the system from which they were born, with jobs and opportunity.   Mr. Henry Ford understood this – the Ford Motor Co. helped birth the American industrial revolution by providing wages that allowed workers to afford the products that they were producing and enjoy the fruit of their labor.  Today, 600,000 worker manufacturing cities in China are making the vast majority of computer products (including iPhones).  The workers there earn about $130/month.  Click here for the details.

If “Occupy Wall Street” could find this message about creating Jobs and Opportunity in America, and stay on message, they could make a meaningful impact for good.  I haven’t seen it yet.

—–

For those who are not completely convinced that the stock of Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $18.49) is going to ZERO, the company received a positive mention from Pacific Crest and today we read that Omega Advisors, Inc. (a $5.4 billion hedge fund) had purchased 1.4 million shares of RIMM.

This chart shows that a protective stop can be placed on RIMM at just below yesterday’s low of $17.17.  Bottom fishing has its risks, but can also be quite rewarding.  (Click on chart and it will expand larger on a separate browser tab, automatically).


We also like the pattern that Gentiva Health (GTIV  $5.43) is providing, on the basis of insider purchases that we identified for you on Wednesday.

Our discipline in not blindly holding Apple, Inc. shares at this time, taking our profits and waiting for a break above $408 or possible extreme weakness is paying off.  The shares are now in the low $380’s.

 

 

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

 

US Dollar

1.3747 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Down a bit

Gold

$1,788.10

Ounce

Gold = UP

Oil

$99.92

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = UP

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.33%

Percent

Down

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.06%

Percent

Down

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

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Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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