– The Stock Market Companion –
15Minute Market Update
November 2, 2011
—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——
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-Executive Summary-
- Higher!
- DOW (+1.53%); S&P500 (+1.61%); NASDAQ (+1.27%)
- The market is in a confirmed uptrend since the October 4th pivot point that we identified. Yesterday’s surprise drop in the market took it down through the lateral consolidation top that serves as support. In other words, the market broke the support – but it took a real surprise event to do it. Today, the market closed above this support line. There will be more wrestling by bulls and bears in this area. Yesterday’s volume was high, and today’s volume much quieter. See your SMC S&P 500 (ETF) Daily Chart Below. Click on it to make it larger in a separate browser window.
- Commodity based stocks like SMC Holding US Steel Corp. (X $25.97) put yesterday’s weakness behind it and validated the current uptrend (so far).
- Germany is asking Greece to clarify if Greece wishes to remain in the European Monetary Union. See below.
- Greece is apparently planning to carry out its referendum on the latest budget bailout plan. See below.
- Greece’s referendum has far reaching implications – beyond finance. See below.
- Can it be that the markets will begin to simply “discount-in” a Greece default and put it in the rear-view mirror for a time?
- SMC Watchlist stock Mela Sciences received FDA approval for their MelaFind melanoma detection system. The stock bounced around a bit today on the news and sold off. But now, (later in the day) a reputable finance firm has given it a $20 target. The stock is now $5.80. It may be time to buy some of the shares and put them in a deep drawer. We will see tomorrow.
- MelaFind is in the news tonight. Here is an example of a good overview of what the device does and some of the FDA approval process difficulties for Mela Sciences.
- LASIK surgery is not without its uncertainties and disappointments, which are mostly irreversible. We highlight a company that offers a competing product which may be in its infancy and it is growing in its application. This is a very interesting development, both as an investment and for subscribers and their family members considering LASIK at this time. Don’t miss it, below.
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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –
| Nr. | Co. | Ticker | Action | Entry Date | Current Gain (Loss) |
| 1 | Ford Motor Co. | F | Holding | 10/5/2011 | +10% |
| 2 | Alcoa, Inc. | AA | Holding | 10/24/2011 | +2% |
| 3 | US Steel, Inc. | X | Holding | 10/28/2011 | +3% |
If the above “Current Holdings” table is empty it means that we are not holding ANY stocks at this time and that we are therefore 100% in cash.
– Markets “At a Glance” –
(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)
| Market | Price (Today’s Close) | Unit of Measure | Today’s Direction |
| SP-500 | 1,237.90 | Index | UP = +19.62 points |
| DOW-30 | 11,836.04 | Index | UP = +178.08 points |
| NASDAQ | 2,639.98 | Index | UP = +33.02 points |
– Market Trends –
Trend |
SP-500 |
DJ-30 |
NASDAQ |
| Short Term | Flat | Flat | Flat |
| Intermediate | UP | UP | UP |
| Long Term | Lateral | Lateral | Lateral |
*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.
– Market Perspectives –
For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –
Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size.
– Today’s Highlights –
Imagine anticipating going to a World Series baseball game in an old-fashioned, outdoor stadium in your home town. The day started cloudy and rainy, but you had good reason to expect that the weather would turn around and you were looking forward to an exciting game. You arrived at the stadium, and the rain even increased some – but you thought that it would eventually let up and that the game would still go on. The game was started and soon the rain did let-up and there was even sunshine peaking through the clouds. Everything was going great. Then out of nowhere, a terrible looking black cloud emerged and let loose a deluge of rain that no one expected. Everyone cried in disbelief and dismay. The game was immediately cancelled and everyone left for home, soaked and disappointed.
So it was yesterday around the world in the investment markets. Investors felt like they had been soaked by surprise news out of Greece and they were very disappointed.
Hard working European negotiators had hammered out a very difficult agreement concerning Greece’s debt obligations with banks and other financial institutions the week before. To understand the pressure that these negotiators and other politicians (notably in Greece) are under, consider that one Greek negotiator experienced a heart-attack in Brussels. In Greece, other politicians close to the Greek Prime Minister Mr. Papandreou have required hospitalization. Then on October 31st, the Prime Minister decided unilaterally, without consulting his other Greek or European counterparts, to have a popular vote on the proposed bailout plan. Hmm.
This article covers the current exasperation concerning the Greek debt crisis well. (Reuters)
Here is an excellent timeline overview of what has been taking place in Greece. (Reuters)
If the Greek populace say’s “NO” to the bailout plan, then the likelihood of a Greek default on its bonds AND its exit from the Euro will be significantly increased, if not assured. On the other hand, if the general population say’s “YES” that will be a very strong validation of legitimacy for the hard work ahead for the country. In either case, the vote symbolizes a referendum on the future participation of Greece in the European Monetary Union, if not their participation in the European Union.
Greece’s original participation in NATO, its participation in the EU, and now the EMU was not without hard thinking about how to secure that section of the world within a democratic framework. It has meant risk taking and sacrifice. The outcome of this referendum will have very far reaching implications, beyond the financial markets. It could lead to destabilizing effects in that region unmentioned in the press. A resurgence in conflicts involving Turkey / Greece may be next. Turkey has already shifted from its post WWII secular orientation and has become a more fundamentalist Muslim country. It would not take much for instability to emerge there.
Today’s BIG event – the outcome of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting relative to US monetary policy for the near term. In short summary, the FOMC left interest rates unchanged. One committee member recommended further stimulus actions to be taken by the Fed.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve ratcheted DOWN its expectations for economic growth in the US.
Careful investors will note these changes –
| Item | New Estimate | Previous Estimate |
| 2011 Real GDP | +1.6 to +1.7% | +2.7 to +2.9% |
| 2011 Unemployment Rate | 9.0 to 9.1 | 8.6 to 8.9 |
| 2011 Core Inflation | 2.7 to 2.9% | 2.3 to 2.5% |
The fact is, the Federal Reserve has steered an exceedingly accommodating monetary policy with interest rates charged on borrowing from the Federal Reserve at near zero. This has helped cushion the impact of enormous strains on the US financial system related to unemployment, the Japanese earthquake, and the possibilities of a financial meltdown in Europe.
We will take our cues from the market as large market participants now weigh news and data that they did not have before.
Just as the markets closed in New York, a European official was quoted as saying that all aid to Greece will be frozen until the referendum is complete. The U.S. dollar advanced on this news.
– Story-Stock Investing –
Today’s performance in shares of US Steel Corp. (X $25.97) was very favorable and puts the shares back above our initial entry at $25.20. Yesterday’s market behavior was very uncomfortable to say the least.
Let’s turn our attention to this stock story that is emerging –
Staar Surgical Co. (STAA $9.25) manufactures and sells implantable lenses for cataract and refractive surgery. The foldable and flexible lenses are placed through a small slit in the eye. They compete with the more mainstream LASIK surgery. Over time, we have learned that outcomes from LASIK are perhaps often a disappointment and irreversible. The Staar Surgical lens can be removed and their results are very good.
It may be that product life cycle of LASIK surgery is in its twilight, and implantable contact lenses such as those manufactured by Staar is in its infancy.
Here is a link to Staar Surgical’s website.
Here is the press release from Staar Surgical’s latest earnings report on October 24, 2011. Here are the published bullet points –
- Quarterly revenue increased to $15.3 million. (+16% growth) (Friends, this is a small company, but growing)
- Cash grew to a record $16.9 million.
- Gross operating margin = +68.5% (this is good)
- Debt stands at approx. 4.2 million (good).
We won’t likely purchase the stock tomorrow. We want to see how the price performs against the uncertainties of the existing background markets (S&P 500). A move above $9.60 would get us interested. Below is a weekly Stock Market Companion chart of STAA.
– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –
US Dollar |
1.3739 USD = 1 Euro |
USD / EUR |
Dollar = UP against the euro |
Gold |
$1,736.90 |
Ounce |
Gold = flat |
Oil |
$92.50 |
Barrel (West Texas Crude) |
Oil = Flat |
30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage |
4.33% |
Percent |
Down |
10 Yr. Bond Yield |
1.99 |
Percent |
Down |
1 Yr. CD |
1.16 |
Percent |
Flat |
–Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.
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Signing-Off for Today,
Your -Stock Market Companion
** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **
The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual, and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual. By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties. You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities. Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.
Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional. Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers). By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.
- The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
- Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment. We go through the details below. The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings. The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today. We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
- Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
- The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average. If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan. If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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