– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

July 29, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published all Market Days
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-Executive Summary-

  • DOWN! The markets continue to respond negatively to the stand-off in Washington.
  • Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers were released for the first quarter and the years from 2007 – 2010, which are much WEAKER than expected.  In spite of extreme government spending, our economy is NOT better off.  Stimulus does not mean simply blindly spending – something that our U.S. congress has not understood.  The numbers released today regarding GDP was a strong disappointment.  See below.
  • Shares of solid state hard drive manufacturer Simple Tech, Inc. (STEC $10.17) are down -39% today on a forecast for weak earnings ahead.  We have been watching both STEC and OCZ Technologies, Inc. (OCZ $7.56) for opportunities in the growth market of solid state hard drives for networks.  STEC Chief Executive Officer (CEO) had purchased $3.5 million of shares at approx. $14.80 – which had our attention, BUT NOT our immediate purchase.  WE are glad that we held off.  The shares are now -31% cheaper and looking terrible.  See below.
  • Don’t forget – we are testing our Monday / Wednesday / Friday schedule for the 15Minute Market Update through the end of August.   Webinars are coming in August. So far the feedback we have received = “Great idea”.
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– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Apple, Inc. AAPL Sold Wednesday 6/20/2011 +24.5% (Final)

2 Bank of America BAC Holding 7/20/2011 -1.3
4 Ford Motor Co. F Holding 7/21/2011 -7.4%
If the above “Current Holdings” table is empty it means that we are not holding ANY stocks at this time and that we are therefore 100% in cash.


– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market

Price (Today’s Close)

Unit of Measure

Today’s Direction

SP-500

1,292.28

Index

Down = -8.39 points

DOW-30

12,143.24

Index

Down = -96.87 points

NASDAQ

2,756.38

Index

Down = -9.87 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

Short Term

Flat/Down

Flat/Down

Flat/Down

Intermediate

Flat

Flat

Flat

Long Term

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart

Please click on the chart to view it in a larger size.

– Today’s Highlights –

Here are the two subjects that the market is concerned about today  –

Today’s important Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, providing revised GDP levels for the 1st quarter and an estimate for the 2nd quarter (the quarter immediately behind us) was a major disappointment.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. BEA) has determined and released today that the gross domestic product for the second quarter was approximately +1.3% (annualized) AND that the GDP for the first quarter was just 0.4%.  Both numbers are a big disappointment.  Friends, this is not a recovery.  The numbers show that we are perilously close to recession.

The following points – released TODAY directly from the U.S. BEA – are indicating that economic activity during the period from 2007 through 2010 was much weaker than previously thought by the government.  (On Main Street, we all know that things are tough.) –

 

  • For 2007-2010, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of less than 0.1 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2011, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent.
  • For 2007-2010, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was revised down 0.6 percentage point from 1.2 percent to 0.6 percent.

Keep in mind, these results have taken place in the context of extreme government spending to stimulate the economy.  It’s not good.

The second subject is the on-going debate in Washington concerning what to do about the debt-ceiling and immediate spending.

Here’s a paradox –

In spite of the severe dis-function in Washington regarding the understanding of just how indebted our country is and an inability to cut spending meaningfully, U.S. Treasuries INCREASED in value today and are at near highs for the year.

 

– Story-Stock Investing –

Simple Tech, Inc. (Ticker: STEC $10.17) is down -39% today alone, after the company reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  On May 25th, we reported that the CEO of Simple Tech had purchased $3.5 million worth of common stock at the open market price of approx. $14.80.  The shares proceeded to move higher, with investors hopeful that the market had misunderstood the company’s recent earnings report and forecast for the future.  Simple Tech participates in the strong growth market of solid state hard drives for networks.  Today the company reported good earnings, but then forecast future earnings that were 2/3 LESS than previously forecast.  We will report more about this next week.  The solid state hard drive business is still in its early innings – so there may be opportunities ahead.  This earnings forecast for STEC has also taken away the enthusiasm for growth stock OCZ Technologies, Inc. (Ticker: OCZ $7.56).

It pays NOT to blindly follow what “insiders” like a CEO is doing with stock purchases, and PAYS to watch the action of the stock before purchasing.



Here is a chart of the Stock Market Companion 15Minute Market Update stock performance versus the SP-500.  Click on it to open in a separate browser window.

* Gains (losses) do not include bokerage fees.   Our returns are very strong … BUT …  We have to st os s s o remind er rt o everyone just like all other financial sites in America – Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Returns.  Unlike the others however, our objective is to teach you to be able to make these types of strong returns On Your Own.

All of the investments – stocks, entries, and exits are listed on our Stock Market Companion Watchlist at the bottom of the spreadsheet, in the section labelled Former Holdings.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.4398 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Flat

Gold

$1,631.20

Ounce

Gold = Up a bit.

Oil

$95.86

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Down

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.69%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

2.80

Percent

Down

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

  • The markets were AGAIN divergent today, just as yesterday revealing further weakness in the technology sector while the broader market (S&P 500) and the DOW (DJ-30) held POSITIVE.
  • Research in Motion (Ticker: RIMM $27.75) reported earnings last night that were a major disappointment.  We go through the details below.  The company received 2 broker upgrades going into earnings.  The stock then lost -21.45% from yesterday’s close into today.  We go through our steps in handling our brief investment in the stock this last week – AND WHY, below.
  • Crude oil continued to descend today, reflecting a drop in value of the U.S. dollar – BUT also  concern of future demand as the global economy slows down.
  • The S&P 500 is finding support at its 200 day exponential moving average.  If the broader market doesn’t find strength here and begins to sink further, the next near point of support is the low it plumbed during the recent nuclear crisis in Japan.  If it fails that point, then the intermediate term trend will be DOWN.
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