– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

May 10, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published all Market Days
Monthly Subscription $29.95

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-Executive Summary-

  • The markets moved lower again as the U.S. dollar surged higher.  Commodity related stocks (metals, oil and agriculture) all fell hard today with the U.S dollars ADVANCE.
  • The Bank of England noted that prices are rising there and will remain above its targets.  In all likelihood this will put an UPSIDE to interest rates, which will add downward pressure to equities markets.
  • At Stock Market Companion, we sent out an SMC Intra-Day Alert related to Cisco Inc. (CSCO).  See below.
  • Would you please feel free to give us feedback at support@stockmarketcompanion.com for insights of what you like about our work and where you would like to see improvements.  We are here to serve you.  We are planning on introducing 1x / month live webinars SOON for market and idea assessments and to offer a broad and specific Q&A session about stock investing.
  • Here is a video interview of a father and son using the Stock Market Companion successfully together – as a teaching and investing tool.

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Cisco Systems,Inc. CSCO Holding (Reduced size) 5-10-2011 -1%
2 Amarin Corp. PLC ARMN Holding (small investment) 5-10-2011 +/- 0%

If the above “Current Holdings” table is empty it means that we are not holding ANY stocks at this time and that we are therefore 100% in cash.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market

Price (Today’s Close)

Unit of Measure

Today’s Direction

SP-500

1,342.08

Index

Down = -15.08 points

DOW-30

12,630.03

Index

Down = -130.33 points

NASDAQ

2,845.06

Index

Down =-26.83 points

NASDAQ 100

2,393.08

Index

Down = -18.27 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

NASDAQ 100

Short Term

Down

Down

Down

Down

Intermediate

UP

UP

UP

UP

Long Term

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

1. SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Click to open helpful chart in a separate browser window).

– Today’s Highlights –

The markets are giving ample signs of fatigue and rotation in the context of tagging new highs last week but failing to consolidate / move higher on Monday, May 2nd following the great news of Osama Bin Laden’s removal.

The fatigue is clear to see by a failure to hold the highs, and consequent sell-offs.  Fatigue is also evident by a failure of market leading stocks to find any further upside at the moment.

There is a limit to this argument as the market is very narrowly approving the advance of certain stocks, such as Amazon.com (Ticker: AMZN).  So why aren’t we buying AMZN?  Because the stock has advanced almost vertically off of its recent lows at around $160/share over the last month and a half.  Intel Corp. (INTC) too has moved strongly higher over the past few weeks, but we simply don’t like the wild nature of the move.  We want a good entry on INTC and pray that we get it.

The rotation is exemplified by commodity price destruction throughout last week, with capital moving into U.S. Treasuries, pushing up the prices on treasuries and consequently pushing down yields.  Commodities sold-off again today as the the U.S. dollar continued to surge higher on trouble in Europe, and to the U.S. dollar’s short term over-sold condition.  Notice that the money is not flowing much into stocks.  Treasury yields continued to fall today.

Today, protests in Greece concerning austerity measures are putting pressure on the euro and assisting the U.S. dollar’s surge higher.

– Story-Stock Investing –

We sent out this SMC Intra-Day Alert concerning our Cisco Systems investment –

Dear Subscriber-Friend –

We like Cisco Systems, Inc. (Ticker: CSCO) because-

  1. Cisco provides the equipment that supports the internet and is a powerhouse.
  2. As the demand for mobile internet service continues to increase and internet video transmission increases bandwidth and processing power requirements, Cisco stands to benefit.  Cisco introduced a new router last year that is designed to meet these new demands on the internet.
  3. Cisco CEO John Chambers issued this internal memo on April 4th, announcing that management will attack their weak operational execution.  Click here to read this important memo.
  4. Based on real earnings over the last 4 quarters = $1.65/share, at $17.80/share Cisco is selling for at a price/earnings ratio of 10.8.  This is at least a discount of -50% to the overall market.
  5. We like the timing of Mr. Chambers memo with the current low share price and approx. -40% reduction in price of the shares since last year.

The above 5 points (product, market, fundamentals and management focus)  and the daily chart pattern (technical’s) has caused us to pay special attention to Cisco shares and purchase a modest quantity yesterday.

We made our purchase however without double checking when quarterly earnings would be reported.  This was a mistake. To our surprise and disappointment, we find that we have purchased the shares basically on the “eve” of their quarterly report today after the close.  This is not the type of investing that we wish to teach to our subscribers.  Under most circumstances, unless we are UP significantly on our position and we have every reason to believe that favorable earnings are on their way, we exit our positions before the earnings report.

These types of situations – and mistakes – are however a reality for all individual stock investors and how we respond  to them is what defines us.

In this case we are simply going to limit our share holdings to a quarter of what we would typically invest.  The background market – as it begins to “chop around” here near recent highs is also behaving poorly – which we don’t like but have predicted as uncertainty concerning the investment environment increases as we near the end of the Federal Reserve’s QEII.

Specifically related to Cisco’s earnings tonight, analysts are expecting approx. $0.37/share for the quarter.  At Stock Market Companion, we believe that while the earnings number is quite important, institutional investors are going to be keen to ask Mr. Chambers specifics concerning his plans for changes at the company.  This is their first chance to ask him direct questions since the above mentioned memo was issued.

It will be exciting, but we are correspondingly cautious.

For your protection and our own, we would like to remind everyone that this is not an investment recommendation for any particular individual.  We cannot possibly know the risk tolerance and investment suitability of such investments for any particular subscriber. Successful investors know their own objectives, purposes, and risks associated with any investment – whether in real estate, stocks, or other investments.  Each investor is on their own.

We are simply reporting the SMC actions in the market place.

Your – Stock Market Companion

At the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the counsel of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

– Stock Market Companion – Performance –

Please click on this chart to see the Stock Market Companion 15MinuteStocks stock performance versus the SP-500.  It will open in a separate browser window.
* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees.   Our returns are very strong … BUT …  WE have to remind everyone just like all other financial sites in America – Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Returns.  Unlike others however, our objective is to teach you to be able to make these types of strong returns On Your Own.

All of the investments – stocks, entries, and exits are listed on our Stock Market Companion Watchlist at the bottom of the spreadsheet, in the section labelled Former Holdings.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.4203 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Moving HIGHER

Gold

$1,501.40

Ounce

Gold = Lower

Oil

$98.58

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Lower

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.69%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

3.15

Percent

LOWER as investors seek safety.

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.


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