– The Stock Market Companion –

15Minute Market Update

May 10, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published all Market Days
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-Executive Summary-

  • The markets moved higher again today, within the context of last week’s rejection of multi-year highs.
  • At Stock Market Companion, we made two investments today – Cisco Systems, Inc. (Ticker: CSCO) and Amarin Corp. PLC (AMRN).  See more below.  We FAILED to emphasize in our Intra-Day Alert that although we are re-establishing our investment in CSCO, we are reducing our investment amount at this time.  This market is simply in need of a pullback of some kind – BUT – HUGE acquisitions like that of Skype today by Microsoft at a BIG premium to market value, continue to underpin the market.  See below.
  • SMC Watchlist stocks WetSeal (WTSLA) and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) are both showing impressive strength today.  We know that WetSeal hired a new CEO last year from American Eagle Outfitters and that WetSeal’s online business is growing.  It is another small cap stock that can whip around, but today’s strength is undeniable.  LVLT is trying to expand higher into the “food chain” of its business (which we like) and has a heavy debt load (which we dislike very much) –  the LVLT stock is in a definite uptrend.
  • Would you please feel free to give us feedback at support@stockmarketcompanion.com for insights of what you like about our work and where you would like to see improvements.  We are here to serve you.  We are planning on introducing 1x / month live webinars SOON for market and idea assessments and to offer a broad and specific Q&A session about stock investing.
  • Here is a video interview of a father and son using the Stock Market Companion successfully together – as a teaching and investing tool.

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Cisco Systems,Inc. CSCO Re-established investment today. (Reduced size) 5-10-2011 -1%
2 Amarin Corp. PLC ARMN Purchased today (small investment) 5-10-2011 +/- 0%

If the above “Current Holdings” table is empty it means that we are not holding ANY stocks at this time and that we are therefore 100% in cash.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market

Price (Today’s Close)

Unit of Measure

Today’s Direction

SP-500

1,357.16

Index

UP = +10.87 points

DOW-30

12,760.36

Index

UP = +75.68 points

NASDAQ

2,871.89

Index

UP =+28.64 points

NASDAQ 100

2,411.35

Index

UP = +20.38 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

NASDAQ 100

Short Term

Down

Down

Down

Down

Intermediate

UP

UP

UP

UP

Long Term

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

1. SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Click to open helpful chart in a separate browser window).

– Today’s Highlights –

Thankfully there isn’t BIG news every day, every week, or month.  At Stock Market Companion we sift through a huge amount of news and stock charts every day in order to boil things down to “bite size” daily summaries that serve to educate and focus our attention on what is important and on how things fit together.  Our objective is to cut through the roaring noise in the media and markets and deliver “a handful or two handfuls” of high probability of success, actionable ideas/year.  Last year we overshot this measure by a wide margin.  For many, our results were very good.  This year, we are attempting to narrow our actions a bit, while casting our net wider for opportunities.

Lately there has been a plethora of events that simply cannot be contained in any other category, other than the one labeled “BIG”.  How else can you possibly classify –

  • A once in several generation rebellion (mostly peaceful) in Egypt that resulted in the resignation of Egyptian President Mubarak.
  • The political upheaval throughout the Arab world.
  • The earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan.
  • Nuclear meltdown in Japan.
  • The price of silver reaching +30 year highs.
  • Texas Instruments purchasing National Semi-Conductor at a +71% premium at $6.5 billion.
  • Apple’s Steve Jobs removes himself from active, day-to-day participation in management due to recurrence of cancer.
  • A daring, brilliantly executed U.S. military raid that resulted in the world’s most wanted criminal – Osama Bin Laden – killed.
  • Mississippi flooding.
  • U.S. dollar at multi-year lows.
  • U.S. Federal Reserve purchasing U.S. Treasuries at previously unheard of amounts.
  • The U.S. stock market achieving a v-sharped recovery and reaching multi-year highs after severe destruction in 2008 and early 2009.
  • Largest ever crack-down in insider trading by the SEC at U.S. institutions.

Today, we add to the list – Microsoft Corps. largest acquisition EVER = the purchase of Skype (internet, peer to peer telephony company) for $8.5 billion.  It appears that just in November, 2009 the original founders of Skype valued the entire company at U.S.$2.75 billion, and eBay sold 70% of Skype to an investor group – based on the $2.75 billion value.  Now – 1.5 years later – Microsoft comes along and pays $8.5 billion.  That’s a 209% increase in value in 1.5 years.  WOW!

Here’s eBay’s press release announcing the sale of their 70% interest back in 2009.

How do we process all this?  Carefully.  Unquestionably, a portion of this news today has to be added to the idea which we have been building on for the last year – companies with strong balance sheets are paying UP for assets at strong premiums to the stock market.

Here’s a rather obvious conclusion to make – Microsoft is NOT an investment for us at the Stock Market Companion at this time.

Another conclusion … These types of acquisitions go a long way to at least “under-pin” the current values established by the market.  Our biggest concern is – How will market participants respond to the Federal Reserve concluding its huge U.S. Treasuries purchases at the end of June?  Here are some of our responses to this uncertainty –

1. We are only going to be partially invested in the market.

2. We will continue to restrict our ideas to companies that have a strong reason to move higher (this is a basic premise for our engagement in the market – at all times).

3. We are going to be “extra” picky about our investments and keep our investment amounts on lower throttle.  That’s said, we are leaving ourselves room for interesting developments like Amarin, below.

Treasury yields have been dropping steadily over the last few weeks.  See our “Benchmarks at a Glance” table below, showing the 10-Year Treasury yield at approx. 3.195%.   That is one measure of risk aversion as investors seek the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries.

– Story-Stock Investing –

With  Microsoft making a very large acquisition at a significant premium to the market (32x operating profits), we have to re-evaluate and check our view of the market.  We do not like the severe drop in the price of silver last week without a bounce until it reached a -30% reduction.  Sure it bounced from Friday into Monday and today, but there were a lot of late-comers to the “commodities party” who were thrown under the bus.  Quite frankly, that action and the subsequent action in the equities markets – combined with the uncertainty ahead due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s end to “quantitative easing” – steered us to the sidelines last Friday.

That said, we observed today what appeared to be some accumulation of Cisco Systems, Inc. stock and we decided that with this one being at near
-40% lows from last year and Cisco CEO John Chambers announcement several weeks ago that things were not “business as usual” (our terms) at the company, we should position ourselves again for a longer term hold.  Accordingly, we sent out an SMC Intra-Day Alert today.

Then, our investment candidate Amarin Corp. PLC (Ticker: AMRN) began moving a bit further higher today.  This triggered an initial (small) investment in the co. for us and triggered another SMC Intra-Day Alert.

Here are the two alerts –

1. Dear Subscriber-Friend –

One of the better stories that we have encountered is the turnaround opportunities at Cisco Systems, Inc. (Ticker: CSCO).

We have re-established our investment in CSCO this late morning at $17.94/share.  Our stop is down at around $16.00/share.

More later.

2. Dear Subscriber-Friend –

We are not aware of any other development stage pharmaceutical company with strong test results for a near market heart disease medication, such as Amarin Corp.    We wrote again about this situation in last night’s 15Minute Market Update and alerted you to a potential buy point emerging.

We have gone ahead and purchased an initial holding of AMRN here at $16.89/share, with a stop just below $15.00 (higher than what we mentioned last night).   If this move doesn’t materialize, we may get out sooner – if we can.

Please note, this company has no revenues at this point and only burns cash.  It’s share price is moving in anticipation (hope) of future strong revenues from their medication that is reasonably close to market.

This company is nothing like Cisco or Ford or Dell… which all have strong products in the marketplace, excellent revenues, and REAL EARNINGS.

More later.

At the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the counsel of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

– Stock Market Companion – Performance –

Please click on this chart to see the Stock Market Companion 15MinuteStocks stock performance versus the SP-500.  It will open in a separate browser window.
* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees.   Our returns are very strong … BUT …  WE have to remind everyone just like all other financial sites in America – Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Returns.  Unlike others however, our objective is to teach you to be able to make these types of strong returns On Your Own.

All of the investments – stocks, entries, and exits are listed on our Stock Market Companion Watchlist at the bottom of the spreadsheet, in the section labelled Former Holdings.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.4417 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Retracing some of its strong move from last week.

Gold

$1,517.70

Ounce

Gold = Modest bounce higher.

Oil

$103.84

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = Modest bounce higher.

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.69%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

3.19

Percent

Flat

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

Please help us by sending your valuable feedback to – Support@stockmarketcompanion.com

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.


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