– The Stock Market Companion –

15MinuteStocks

Market Update

April 12, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published all Market Days
Monthly Subscription $29.95

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-Executive Summary-

  • The markets closed DOWN today.  Selling in commodities based stocks led the sell-off.  Oil was at the epicenter of the selling.  See more below.  Since our note about oil and commodities pricing on Friday that it “rarely pays to run after the market”, oil has fallen approx. -6% in value.
  • THERE ARE NO ACTIONS that we have taken today.  Please see our observations, below.
  • In our “Story-Stocks” section today, we talk about Level 3 Communications (Ticker: LVLT $1.67/share).
  • We sent out an SMC Intra-Day Update.  See more below.
  • Here’s our SECOND Stock Market Companion Customer Testimony video.

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)
1 Nexxus Lighting NEXS Holding 3/18/2011 -23%
2 Dell Inc. DELL Holding 3/21/2011 -2%
3 Cisco Inc. CSCO Holding 4/6/2011 -2%
4 Ford Motor Co. F Holding 4/1/2011 -3%
5 China Shen Zhou Mining SHZ Holding 4/7/2011 +16%
If the above “Current Holdings” table is empty it means that we are not holding ANY stocks at this time and that we are therefore 100% in cash.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market

Price (Today’s Close)

Unit of Measure

Today’s Direction

SP-500

1,314.16

Index

Down = -10.30 points

DOW-30

12,263.58

Index

Down = -117.53 points

NASDAQ

2,744.79

Index

Down = -26.72 points

NASDAQ 100

2,298.30

Index

Down = -16.20 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

NASDAQ 100

Short Term

Flat

Flat

Flat

Flat

Intermediate

UP

UP

UP

UP

Long Term

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

1. SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Click to open helpful chart in a separate browser window).

– Today’s Highlights –

It’s never comfortable to be owning stocks and see the markets pull-back sharply.   Today’s market weakness was associated primarily with energy, energy related, and commodity stocks – with a few technology stocks thrown in for good measure.

The most significant catalysts for today’s market moves were –

The Asian markets being jolted by the  Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) raising the severity of the Fukushima incident from level 5 to 7.   At this time, this appears to be more of a re-classification of what already took place, rather than an indication that the current status has worsened.

The weakness in Asian markets spread to Europe, and triggered further selling in our American markets.

Goldman Sachs announced that they expected LOWER OIL PRICES in the months ahead due to “nascent signs of oil demand destruction in the United States.”  This caused a tumble in commodities pricing – as speculators re-evaluated what the recent commodity spikes – whether in oil or cotton would eventually do to demand.

– Story-Stock Investing –

Of course we don’t catch everything and we let certain opportunities pass by as we weigh out which ones are the best for us to focus on, but if there is a specific weakness in the way that we look at stocks and stock investing at the Stock Market Companion, I would say it would be singularly how we look at DEBT and heavily indebted companies.  After two decades of investing in common stocks, we have come to a real appreciation for companies with little or no debt who are increasing market share and presenting excellent products or services to the market place.  We like those stories best.  We generally give heavily indebted companies the cold shoulder.

This is what has made it hard for us to warm up to the whole Level 3 Communications (Ticker: LVLT) story.  We were focused on the company when they startled everyone late last summer / early fall when they took Content Distribution Network (CDN) market share from Akamai, Inc. (Ticker: AKAM) at Akamai’s most prestigious customer – Netflix, Inc.  But Level 3 has approx. $6.5 billion in debt verses $600 million in cash and we don’t like that one bit.  So we let the story idle.   BUT LVLT is also trying to recreate itself in the market place and is making what appears to be some good moves.  From 2005 through the first part of 2007, the stock advanced from $1.60/share to over $6/share.  That’s a nice move.

LVLT shares are now back down at $1.67/share and LVLT announced yesterday their desire to acquire Global Crossing, Inc. for $2 billion, which will increase their debt, BUT also perhaps further strengthen their market position.  If big money begins to ignore the impact of LVLT debt with the hope of stronger future earnings and the share price consolidates here and begins pushing above $1.70-$1.80/share – we may get warmed up to the story and follow suit.

Concerning the overall market and the stocks that we are holding, today we sent out this SMC Intra-Day Update –

Dear Subscriber-Friend –

We mentioned last week on Friday that the market had the look of a double-top formation, which with high probability could lead to further downside in the markets. We also mentioned that we were holding onto our stocks, in spite of the near term difficulties that the picture of the broader market was presenting. Why?

The stocks that we have purchased have something much more than “price” going for them –

Ford Motor Co. – Still in the early innings of a turn-around at the Ford company AND in the automotive industry. We purchased our Ford shares on an -18% pull-back in the stock, AND after the market demonstrated resilience in the face of trouble in Japan and the Arab world. CEO Mulally is about as good as they come.

Dell, Inc. – CEO Michael Dell loaded up on approx. $150 million of the shares of his company on the open market at around $14.24/share. He is a brilliant entrepreneur and we believe that he is not yet finished in re-creating his company. Dell perfected web-based PC sales and just in time manufacturing techniques, and has squashed traditional PC manufacturers. Apple, Inc. has redefined the PC landscape with product innovation.

Cisco, Inc. – CEO John Chambers has repented for not serving shareholders and has announced his intent to re-engineer the company. He is either going to be successful, or be pushed out. How many times in our lifetime have we seen a CEO of a brilliant company come clean about not serving shareholders and pledge to fix it, pronto? Not many.

Nexxus Lighting – O.K. This is an exploratory investment. Their new lighting for residential homes will be launched at 1400 Lowes stores beginning in June. We emphasized that we only bought a little, little. Nonetheless we did a bad job not waiting for a pull-back on the gap higher following the news release on their launch at Lowes. If the stock improves, we will add-to.

“SHZ” – We’ve written plenty about this one. It is what it is. A micro-cap company where the shorts have perhaps overstayed their welcome. If they get “rolled-up”, this stock can move significantly higher. We have a good stop in place to protect ourselves as much as possible if this one heads south.

All of these good ideas about the above stocks won’t do any good if the market begins to disassemble itself. At this time however, we are not expecting this.

Today’s larger drop in the markets is due primarily to energy and materials related stocks experiencing strong profit taking.

Goldman Sachs reported today that they expect significantly lower oil prices in the months ahead. Friendly folks that they are, they sold their oil holdings yesterday before their announcement – and will probably play an oversold bounce soon.

For your protection and our own, we would like to remind everyone that this is not an investment recommendation for any particular individual. We cannot possibly know the risk tolerance and investment suitability of such investments for any particular subscriber. Successful investors know their own objectives, purposes, and risks associated with any investment – whether in real estate, stocks, or other investments. Each investor is on their own.

We are simply reporting the SMC actions in the market place.

Your – Stock Market Companion

At the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the council of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

– Stock Market Companion – Performance –

Please click on this chart to see the Stock Market Companion 15MinuteStocks stock performance versus the SP-500.  It will open in a separate browser window.
* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees.   Our returns are very strong … BUT …  WE have to remind everyone just like all other financial sites in America – Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Returns.  Unlike others however, our objective is to teach you to be able to make these types of strong returns On Your Own.

All of the investments – stocks, entries, and exits are listed on our Stock Market Companion Watchlist at the bottom of the spreadsheet, in the section labelled Former Holdings.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.4474 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = FLAT.

Gold

$1,453.00

Ounce

Gold = Down some.

Oil

$105.93

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = DOWN HARD

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.8%

Percent

Flat

10 Yr. Bond Yield

3.50

Percent

Flat

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.


Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.


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