– The Stock Market Companion –

15MinuteStocks

Market Update

March 1, 2011

—— Stock Market Investing since the 1980’s ——

Published all Market Days
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-Executive Summary-

  • Down. The broader market (SP-500) and secondary markets – DOW (DJ-30) and NASDAQ all failed to impress investors and were locked in trend-down behavior today.  Under normal market conditions, when the Federal Reserve is not aggressively buying U.S. Treasuries and indirectly pushing investors to more liquid investments like stocks, we would expect the market to weaken further based on its technically over-bought nature.  However, the fundamentals of many stocks say that they are not over-priced.  Stocks can and do however “fall by their own weight”, when demand dries up – regardless of their intrinsic value.
  • Catalysts for today’s negative action center on continuing Middle East trouble, rising price of oil and its potential to disturb the economy, AND uncertainty about U.S. Congress budget activities.  The U.S. government is funded until March 4th.
  • We sent out an SMC Intra-Day Alert concerning the markets and the Middle East this morning.  Please see it in its entirety below.
  • Sonus Networks (Ticker: SONS $4.10) received a lot of attention today.  Their revenue growth exploded higher and their earnings turned positive.  That was sufficient to push the stock UP +35% today alone.  More below.
  • Click here to see our latest Stock Market Companion Video Update – How to Time the Market – which we posted ton YouTube.  We cover one aspect of timing the market that we hope you will find very useful for years to come.

– Markets “At a Glance” –

(Please scroll down to the end of the report to see your favorite benchmarks – Dollar, Oil, Gold … closing prices and daily direction.)

Market

Price (Today’s Close)

Unit of Measure

Today’s Direction

SP-500

1,306.33

Index

DOWN = -20.89 points

DOW-30

12,058.02

Index

DOWN = -168.32 points

NASDAQ

2,737.41

Index

DOWN = -44.86 points

NASDAQ 100

2,315.26

Index

DOWN = -35.73 points

– Market Trends –

Trend

SP-500

DJ-30

NASDAQ

NASDAQ 100

Short Term

Down/Flat

Down/Flat

Down/Flat

Down/Flat

Intermediate

UP

UP

UP

UP

Long Term

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

Lateral

*Summary of terms from Trader Vic II-Principles of Professional Speculation (pg. 140-141)
*_________* Represents a change in trend rating.

– Market Perspectives –

For your added perspective, we’ve included this chart of the broader market (Successful stock investors develop and start with a minds-eye view of the broader market and keep it clear) –

1. SMC SP-500 ETF Daily Chart (Click to open helpful chart in a separate browser window).

– Today’s Highlights –

Today we issued this SMC Intra-Day Alert concerning the markets and what we are seeing –

Dear Subscriber-Friend –

These are exciting times.  At the SMC, we are interested in purchasing shares in companies that have excellent stories about them and that are going to excel in 2011.  One method  that we use to discover such opportunities is to find companies that are reporting excellent quarterly earnings for the previous quarter just completed and GUIDING HIGHER on earnings for the next quarter.  Companies that fit such criteria are Dell Inc. and Ebay, among others.

We also like unusual opportunities that present themselves from time to time, such as – The Bank of Ireland or China Shen Zhou Mining – did in November and December 2010.  We are constantly on the alert for such opportunities as well.  Today, Sonus Networks (Ticker: SONS) reported excellent earnings, made the important transition from quarterly losses to a quarterly gain, AND revenues ROSE +94.4% year over year.  Stocks with these types of numbers get our focused attention.

We also are not opposed to shorting the market, and providing ideas on how to do so using exchange traded funds that are designed for that purpose.  But our conviction needs to be very strong to initiate such short term investments and our timing excellent.

Today the news is full of uncertainties in the Middle East.  We read conflicting reports as to whether Saudi Arabia has sent tanks to neighboring Bahrain in order to support the government there.   Additionally in Libya, Mr. Gaddafi is still apparently in charge, threatening and violently resisting reform minded protestors.  The longer such events drag out, the more nervous the energy markets and equities markets become – and rightfully so.

Closer to home, Treasury Secretary Geithner expanded today on ideas on how to reduce the government’s involvement in the mortgage market, and Fed. Chairman Bernanke mentioned that the economic recovery was perhaps taking firmer root and that the Federal Reserve has the tools to prevent inflation.  Both of these statements have counter-intuitive effects on the market – at least short term.

We are reporting these things to let you know that we are ready to engage the markets – when the risks are tilted heavily in our favor and an opportunity is simply too good to pass up.  Until then, we are going to remain very attentive on the sidelines – thereby avoid getting thrown under a bus with Mr. Gaddafi or someone else at the wheel.

For your protection and our own, we would like to remind everyone that this is not an investment recommendation for any particular individual.  We cannot possibly know the risk tolerance and investment suitability of such investments for any particular subscriber. Successful investors know their own objectives, purposes, and risks associated with any investment – whether in real estate, stocks, or other investments.  Each investor is on their own.

We are simply reporting the SMC actions in the market place.

Your – Stock Market Companion

Today the Institute of Supply Chain Management (ISM) released their manufacturing survey for February which shows a HIGH activity level not measured since 2004.

Here’s a brief synopsis direct from the ISM –

“Manufacturing continued its rapid growth in February as the PMI registered 61.4 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to January’s reading of 60.8 percent. This is also the highest PMI reading since May 2004 when the index also registered 61.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.”

– Story-Stock Investing –

Sonus Networks Inc. (Ticker: SONS $4.11/share) makes sophisticated equipment to help communications companies shift from traditional telephony to voice-over-internet.  Sonus reported earnings last night which surprised everyone with POSITIVE earnings and BLOW-OUT +94.4% year over year revenue expansion.  Wow.  The stock took off last night and today as well, once the sellers of the good-news were out of the way.  The stock is currently priced at approx. $4.10/share and today’s advance was +35%!  Friends, that’s blazing hot.

Sonus guided HIGHER for this next year and also reported this (from their conference call Q&A transcripts) –

Alex Henderson – Miller Tabak & Co., LLC (Asks…)

And so theoretically, did you actually lose one or did the customer that ceased the trial stop the trial for other reasons? Did it go to a competitor?

Raymond Dolan (SONUS responds to question…)

No, it’s just stopped for other reasons.

Alex Henderson – Miller Tabak & Co., LLC (Asks…)

So you actually haven’t experienced any losses, competitive losses against this product line then?

Raymond Dolan (Sonus answers question…)

Correct.

Question and Answer session over.

When a company is introducing a product and they don’t have any real competition for it… that’s a great thing!  This is one of the reasons why the stock is advancing strongly today.

Nonetheless, after a +35% advance in a day, we cannot safely buy this stock.  But we will add it to our watchlist.

Meanwhile the DOW is down approx. -155 points this afternoon as we write these notes.  Needless to say, we are glad to be on the sidelines at the moment.

————


Please remember – at the Stock Market Companion we do not and cannot give individual investment advice. According to the State of Washington RCW 21.20.005 the Stock Market Companion is not a Registered Financial Advisor and we do not render any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of a particular individual. This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should our SMC Intraday Update, SMC 15MinuteStocks Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  Please seek the counsel of a broker or other licensed investment professional for accurate pricing and concerning the suitability of all investments that you may be considering. Disclosure : Please understand that the Stock Market Companion may hold positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

– Stock Market Companion – Current Holdings –

Nr. Co. Ticker Action Entry Date Current Gain (Loss)

– Stock Market Companion – Performance –

Please click on this chart to see the Stock Market Companion 15MinuteStocks stock performance versus the SP-500.  It will open in a separate browser window.
* Gains (losses) do not include brokerage fees.   Our returns are very strong … BUT …  WE have to remind everyone just like all other financial sites in America – Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Returns.  Unlike others however, our objective is to teach you to be able to make these types of strong returns On Your Own.

All of the investments – stocks, entries, and exits are listed on our Stock Market Companion Watchlist at the bottom of the spreadsheet, in the section labelled Former Holdings.

– Benchmarks “At a Glance” –

US Dollar

1.3788 USD = 1 Euro

USD / EUR

Dollar = Flat

Gold

$1,429.50

Ounce

Gold = UP BIG

Oil

$99.40

Barrel (West Texas Crude)

Oil = UP

30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage

4.87%

Percent

Down a Bit

10 Yr. Bond Yield

3.412

Percent

Flat

1 Yr. CD

1.16

Percent

Flat

Data Source : Financial Visualizations Inc.

This early morning a couple of dear angels came to visit me in my office – Mikelle (7) and Noelle (3).

Signing-Off for Today,

Your -Stock Market Companion

** Stock Market Companion Disclaimer **

The Stock Market Companion (SMC) Market Update and Watchlist are published documents to subscribers that show how we (SMC) are viewing the markets and what we are watching, investing in or selling today.  This information is for a wide readership and is not intended for any particular individual,  and under no circumstances should this Market Update or Watchlist be considered an investment recommendation or plan for any specific individual.  By accessing this material, you agree that the Stock Market Companion will not be held liable for any actions taken by a subscriber or other parties.  You understand that the Stock Market Companion holds positions in the above mentioned securities.  Based on market related or personal events these positions may change without notice.

Furthermore, the Stock Market Companion, Inc. is a content provider and publisher and not a registered broker-dealer or licensed investment professional.  Our intent is to publish very accurate market information for an audience of subscribers (1000+ subscribers).  By accessing the Stock Market Companion website and/or using the Stock Market Companion products and services such as this Market Update and accompanying Watchlist, you understand and agree that the material provided in the Stock Market Companion products and services is for informational and educational purposes only, and that no mention of a particular security in a Stock Market Companion product or service constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  To the extent any of the information contained in any Stock Market Companion product or service may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  Before selling or buying any stock or other investment you should consult with a qualified broker or other financial professional to verify pricing information and to solicit advice as to the appropriateness of a given transaction or investment.

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